Denmark

Denmark announced the phasing out of its tax break for electric vehicles starting in 2015, which caused Tesla’s sales to surge to an all-time high in the country, but they have been virtually non-existent since then and all electric car sales have crashed.

To highlight the impact, 1,300 electric vehicles were sold in Denmark in 2016, while Tesla delivered 1,300 vehicles in December 2015 alone.

The government has now announced that they are walking back some of the changes in order to boost back EV sales for at least 5,000 more vehicles.

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You might remember the article that we wrote a month ago about the Danish startup, Spiri, that is looking to offer a new twist on carpooling services. Combining the ideas of car sharing networks, like car2go, and ride-sharing services, like UberPool, all into one business, Spiri will aim to be the first company to provide its own fleet of electric vehicles for passengers to drive for free in exchange for picking up riders going the same direction who will then pay a small fee similar to other forms of public transport except with the added benefit of driving you all the way to your end destination.

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In heavily populated cities, there is often a problem with cars overcrowding and congesting the roads because the demand, usually, outweighs the supply. Many companies have presented their solutions for the dilemma, such as Uber, Lyft, and Tesla’s shared fleet idea. Now, a Danish startup, Spiri, seeks to provide their own twist on how to alleviate the strain in metropolitan areas.

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In December, the Tesla Model S not only outsold every other electric car in Denmark, but every single car model regardless of if they are gas-guzzling or battery-powered.

Tesla delivered 1,249 Model S’s in December in Denmark, easily beating the second best-selling vehicle; the Peugeot 208 with 903 vehicles sold during the month.

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As the end of the year, and consequently the end of the fourth quarter, is getting closer, investors and analysts are debating whether or not Tesla can achieve its ambitious delivery goal of 17,000 to 19,000 cars in the last 3 months of the year for a total of 50,000 to 52,000 in 2015.

Achieving the lower-end of the guidance would mean a 46% quarter to quarter increase and a 73% increase over the same period last year. We’ve already reported on registration data for October and November for Tesla’s most important European markets, but now with more data coming from California and Denmark, as well as new information about the Model X and demonstration vehicles, it looks like Tesla is poised to achieve at least the lower-end of its guidance.

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Tesla needs to deliver a record-breaking ~17,000 units in the last quarter of the year to achieve the low-end of its 2015 delivery guidance of  50,000-55,000 vehicles. Since the company now sells more cars in Europe than in North America or Asia, Model S deliveries in European markets are more important than ever.

Here’s our November 2015 look at Model S deliveries based on registration data in Tesla’s most important European markets:

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After some confusion over Tesla registering thousands of Model S’s in Denmark in anticipation of a surge of electric vehicle sales over the phasing out of tax breaks in the country starting in 2016, the company confirmed having ordered 2,500 license plates in order for Tesla buyers to be able to complete their purchases by the end of the year.

With 113 Model S’s registered in October, the data didn’t reflect any demand increase due to the end of the tax breaks for electric vehicles, but the government published November registration data today and it now shows a significant increase in Tesla Model S registrations.

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Earlier this week, we reported on the Danish government suspecting Tesla of having registered 2,500 cars to profit from the tax breaks for electric vehicles, which will start phasing out next year. A Tesla representative quickly denied the claim saying that only 114 Model S’s were registered in October in Denmark, but now both parties clarified the situation and Tesla confirmed having ordered 2,500 license plates.

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The Danish government recently announced the phasing out of tax breaks for electric vehicles starting next year. The new provision would increase the price of all-electric cars significantly, but even more so for luxury vehicles like the Tesla Model S, which could see its price increase by as much as 180%.

As I speculated in a recent piece: “Denmark’s tax increase on electric cars could be a blessing in disguise for Tesla“, potential buyers could rush to secure the purchase of electric vehicles before the end of the tax break, which would create a surge in EV registrations during the last quarter of the year.

Earlier today, tax minister Karsten Lauritzen confirmed that such a surge happened, but he claimed that it could be due to an “illegal bulk purchase” of 2,500 cars from Tesla.

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Last week Denmark’s new government announced that they plan on phasing out tax breaks for electric vehicles in the 2016 budget.  The new provision would increase the price of all-electric cars significantly, but even more so for luxury vehicles like the Tesla Model S, which would see its price increase by ~180%.

It’s obviously bad news for electric cars in the mid- to long-term, but it could actually be a blessing in disguise for Tesla which needs to significantly increase sales in the short-term to achieve its 2015 delivery guidance.

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