deliveries

Tesla (TSLA) released today its production and delivery numbers for the second quarter 2016. The automaker confirmed missing its delivery guidance of 17,000 vehicles in Q2 with only 14,370 vehicles, while also missing its production guidance of 20,000 vehicles with only 18,345 vehicles.
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Switzerland was Tesla’s breakout European market last year and it continues to be an impressive market for the company. Deliveries were up 213% year-over-year at the end of 2015 and now we learn that  Model S deliveries are up 117% in the first quarter 2016 versus the same period last year, according to registration data.
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The Netherlands is an important market for Tesla. It’s the automaker’s second biggest market in Europe, behind Norway, though technically it was Tesla’s third biggest European market in 2015 because of the temporary surge in sales in Denmark ahead of this year’s tax increase for electric vehicles.

But now that Tesla’s sales are virtually nonexistent in Denmark following the price increase, the Netherlands is back as the second biggest market in Europe and things are looking good for 2016.
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After a slow start in Germany for the past 3 years, Tesla is starting to make progress in this difficult market dominated by local manufacturers. Last year, Model S sales increased by 94% according to registration data, and although it still lags behind comparatively smaller countries like the Netherlands and Switzerland, things are looking up for Tesla in Germany.
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Tesla has a presence in Sweden since late 2013, but sales in the country have been lagging until mid-2015. Based on registration data, Tesla delivered only 268 Model S’s in Sweden in 2014, but last year the automaker delivered 996 cars, which represents a 271% increase.

This increase made Sweden an important market for Tesla in Europe, where it now holds the 6th position in term of volume – ahead of countries like France and the UK – despite Sweden’s size.

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Norway is a very important market for Tesla. It’s the automaker’s biggest in Europe and about 8% of its total worldwide deliveries last year. In 2015, Tesla had flat deliveries in the country after delivering the exact same number, 4,039 Model S units, two years in a row, based on registration data.

It is still impressive for a relatively small country – though with a lot of EV incentives – but Tesla is definitely not growing in Norway anymore, or at least for the time being.
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According to a new report from Nikkei, Tesla anticipates very little growth in mainland China in 2016. The news agency reports that during his current trip in Hong Kong, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed that the company aims to deliver 5,000 cars this year after falling short on its 2015 delivery goal of 10,000 units in China.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk is currently in Hong Kong to participate in the StartmeupHK tech forum. While in the country, the CEO took some time to share a few new information about how Tesla is doing in Hong Kong and mainland China, as well as the automaker’s future plans in the country.
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France is among the many European markets that greatly helped Tesla grow its fleet in 2015. The automaker delivered a total of 50,580 cars globally last year, which represents an overall 60% increase over 2014, while the company’s deliveries grew 115% in France in 2015.
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Switzerland continues to be an impressive market for Tesla where the company delivers just as many cars as in Germany, even though it’s a much smaller market than its neighboring country. According to registration data, Tesla delivered 1,556 Model S’s in Switzerland last year and 193 units in December alone.
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Tesla had an incredible year for sales and deliveries in 2015. The California-based automaker delivered 50,580 vehicles last year, which represents a 60% increase over the previous year. It’s hard to find any weaknesses with such an incredible sales performance. Yet the company increased its deliveries in almost all markets but Norway, where according to registration data, Tesla delivered the exact same number of Model S’s in 2014 and 2015: 4,039 units.
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Tesla has a presence in Sweden since late 2013, but sales in the country have been lagging until mid-2015. Based on registration data, Tesla delivered only 268 Model S’s in Sweden in 2014, but last year the automaker delivered 996 cars, which represents a 271% increase.
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Tesla announced deliveries for the fourth quarter 2015 today and as we predicted earlier this month, the company hits the low-end of its ambitious goal of 17,000 to 19,000 deliveries, with 17,400 total deliveries from October to December.
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As the end of the year, and consequently the end of the fourth quarter, is getting closer, investors and analysts are debating whether or not Tesla can achieve its ambitious delivery goal of 17,000 to 19,000 cars in the last 3 months of the year for a total of 50,000 to 52,000 in 2015.

Achieving the lower-end of the guidance would mean a 46% quarter to quarter increase and a 73% increase over the same period last year. We’ve already reported on registration data for October and November for Tesla’s most important European markets, but now with more data coming from California and Denmark, as well as new information about the Model X and demonstration vehicles, it looks like Tesla is poised to achieve at least the lower-end of its guidance.
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Tesla needs to deliver a record-breaking ~17,000 units in the last quarter of the year to achieve the low-end of its 2015 delivery guidance of  50,000-55,000 vehicles. Since the company now sells more cars in Europe than in North America or Asia, Model S deliveries in European markets are more important than ever.

Here’s our November 2015 look at Model S deliveries based on registration data in Tesla’s most important European markets:
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Tesla announced today via Instagram that  the company now offers test drives out of Harrods, a popular upmarket department store in London. The company claims to be the first automotive manufacturer to offer test drives out of the store.
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Hyundai announced today that it will unveil a new car with 3 electric powertrain options called IONIQ. The vehicle will be available in all-electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and conventional hybrid without a plug (HEV).

The launch is set for January 2016 in Korea, followed by Geneva and New York auto shows.
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In a new note issued this morning, Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves reiterated an ‘outperform’ rating and $325 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) . The analyst considers the fourth quarter guidance to be “achievable” and he sees a “reasonable path” to $4 EPS in 2016 – compared to the ~$2.30 annualized loss per share in the last quarter.
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Tesla rarely, if ever offer discounts at the purchase of its products, but with its ambitious goal to deliver between 17,000 and 19,000 vehicles globally in the last 3 months of the year, it seems the company resorted to offering a significant discount to new Chinese customers.

The company announced through a blog post on its Chinese website that from November 15 to December 31, it will offer up to 80,000 Yuan ($12,500 US) in discount at the purchase of a Model S under its “fuel vehicle replacement” program.
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Switzerland continues to be an impressive market for Tesla. Based on registration data, Tesla delivered 120 Model S’s in the country last month, which brings the year-to-date total to 1,269 cars versus 357 during the same period in 2014.
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