registration

Tesla has a presence in Sweden since late 2013, but sales in the country have been lagging until mid-2015. Based on registration data, Tesla delivered only 268 Model S’s in Sweden in 2014, but last year the automaker delivered 996 cars, which represents a 271% increase.

This increase made Sweden an important market for Tesla in Europe, where it now holds the 6th position in term of volume – ahead of countries like France and the UK – despite Sweden’s size.

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As the end of the year, and consequently the end of the fourth quarter, is getting closer, investors and analysts are debating whether or not Tesla can achieve its ambitious delivery goal of 17,000 to 19,000 cars in the last 3 months of the year for a total of 50,000 to 52,000 in 2015.

Achieving the lower-end of the guidance would mean a 46% quarter to quarter increase and a 73% increase over the same period last year. We’ve already reported on registration data for October and November for Tesla’s most important European markets, but now with more data coming from California and Denmark, as well as new information about the Model X and demonstration vehicles, it looks like Tesla is poised to achieve at least the lower-end of its guidance.
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Tesla needs to deliver a record-breaking ~17,000 units in the last quarter of the year to achieve the low-end of its 2015 delivery guidance of  50,000-55,000 vehicles. Since the company now sells more cars in Europe than in North America or Asia, Model S deliveries in European markets are more important than ever.

Here’s our November 2015 look at Model S deliveries based on registration data in Tesla’s most important European markets:
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After some confusion over Tesla registering thousands of Model S’s in Denmark in anticipation of a surge of electric vehicle sales over the phasing out of tax breaks in the country starting in 2016, the company confirmed having ordered 2,500 license plates in order for Tesla buyers to be able to complete their purchases by the end of the year.

With 113 Model S’s registered in October, the data didn’t reflect any demand increase due to the end of the tax breaks for electric vehicles, but the government published November registration data today and it now shows a significant increase in Tesla Model S registrations.
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Based on registration data, Tesla delivered 225 Model S’s in Norway last month – up from 198 units in October and 202 in November 2014. The company recently ran in some troubles in Norway after Model S owners expressed concerns over the way Tesla is reporting the power output of the car, especially the Dual Motor version. Tesla is now in mediation with over 150 Model S owners in the country over these concerns.

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According to the registration data coming in for November in European markets, Tesla delivered 157 Model S’s last month in the Netherlands – up from 145 units in October. The Netherlands continue to be an important market for Tesla. It is the second biggest European market for the company with Norway being the first.

Year-to-date, the company delivered 1,613 cars in the country, which represents a 44% increase versus the same period last year.
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Earlier this week, we reported on the Danish government suspecting Tesla of having registered 2,500 cars to profit from the tax breaks for electric vehicles, which will start phasing out next year. A Tesla representative quickly denied the claim saying that only 114 Model S’s were registered in October in Denmark, but now both parties clarified the situation and Tesla confirmed having ordered 2,500 license plates.
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Switzerland continues to be an impressive market for Tesla. Based on registration data, Tesla delivered 120 Model S’s in the country last month, which brings the year-to-date total to 1,269 cars versus 357 during the same period in 2014.
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The Danish government recently announced the phasing out of tax breaks for electric vehicles starting next year. The new provision would increase the price of all-electric cars significantly, but even more so for luxury vehicles like the Tesla Model S, which could see its price increase by as much as 180%.

As I speculated in a recent piece: “Denmark’s tax increase on electric cars could be a blessing in disguise for Tesla“, potential buyers could rush to secure the purchase of electric vehicles before the end of the tax break, which would create a surge in EV registrations during the last quarter of the year.

Earlier today, tax minister Karsten Lauritzen confirmed that such a surge happened, but he claimed that it could be due to an “illegal bulk purchase” of 2,500 cars from Tesla.
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Tesla has been the best-selling electric vehicle in Switzerland for over 2 years now, but recently it’s been doing so well that it is not only outselling all EVs, but also every gas-powered vehicles in its class.

Based on registration data, Tesla delivered 513 Model S’s in Switzerland during the third quarter 2015 (July to Sept.), a 450% increase over the same period last year.
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