Welcome to the Electrek Green Energy Brief. Put together by our Electrek authors, the Energy Brief is a daily technical, financial, and political review of important green energy news.
750MW solar park to get 0.25% loan from World Bank – This is just below the going rate for banks that borrow directly from the United States (or really rich people who have hard collateral). The World Bank does have political reasons for giving a loan like this and the loan is probably backed by India. Nonetheless, big names like this giving big money like this are important – for one, that one group is doing it means others will soon follow. And that means 1GW solar power plants will get built a lot more often.
The Trump Administration pushing back against carbon tax – Technically, anything this group says out loud doesn’t matter relative to truth or long term reality – however – it does represent their current philosophical positions. And that is a good thing to know. However, has the Trump administration ever heard of a ‘carbon dividend‘?
System monitoring software getting Australian attention – Posting this because of a few data points in the article – the main one 15% system losses in residential solar systems due to not recognizing downtime. Holy lost revenue! That’s huge. This needs to be tied directly to my heart – if my solar system isn’t working at high noon I need a little jolt.
SunPower thinks it’ll be a challenge for Musk to deliver PV at the prices suggested – Two things – 1. SunPower sells the most expensive – and maybe best quality – solar panel a regular person can buy. 2. SunPower has been selling solar panels for a long time. My default reaction with Musk is to expect that maybe it’ll take a little longer (month? six?) to arrive and roll out a bit slower (80,000 vehicles in 2016 versus almost 100,000 as guidance) – but, it will arrive and it will be priced right and it will change the game. I can accept that – I would celebrate that.
California looking to specify renewables for peak moments – The gist – California legislators are attempting to restructure the power market so it makes more sense economically for renewable energy to be applied to the very expensive peak demand areas. The reason we ought watch these types of legislation is that places like California are at the cutting edge of power markets and how we’re going to monetize clean energy. Funny that we’ve so quickly progressed from renewables can’t scale and are expensive, to there are too many renewables and they’re so cheap we need to change everything. Expand Expanding Close
The header image is found on spot.com. It is a piece of solar glass art made by Sarah Hall. I’ve never seen anyone make such gorgeous solar art that generates electricity. Combined with the products we’re seeing from groups like Onyx Solar – it seems new construction with customized solar in the place of glass – could be economically sound (everything I do in solar involves return on investment). And that economically sound glass could be quite beautiful.
How to create a 26.3% solar cell – The image of an almost pure black solar cell is fitting. Developer of cell says manufacturing timetables haven’t been discussed. 2020? Later probably. In real life, 30 standard 280W solar panels taking up 550 sq ft of roof space would cover the average 2.6 family household – if the efficiency increases from 16% to 26% (65%!) you’d need about 18 solar panels taking up 330 sq ft of roof space. There are a lot more surfaces that are 330 sq ft then there are 500 sq ft plus. One of the major arguments I get is that they want more electricity out of the same space – this is the path.
Low cost wind displacing coal – 56GW of coal at risk, that’s a big number – about 16% of the current stock around 339GW of coal. If wind runs at a 35% capacity factor and coal is around 60%, that’d mean about 96GW of wind to replace the at risk product – that would more than double the current US wind capacity. That’d be a lot of progress
India doubling solar capacity in 15 months – From 10GW to 20GW – You know why this solar revolution really could happen, because it seems the revolution slowly moves around the world – Germany, Italy and Spain, then the USA and Japan, then China that leads – and now India stepping onto the big field. Of course, there are others growing – Australia and Africa and the Middle Eastern oil countries. It seems as I hear about slowdowns in Germany and China as they build out their grids, India picks up. And once China and Germany fix their grids, their volumes will explode again. Virtuous cycle spreading across the globe in a complex pattern that we’ve seen before with many other technologies that come to dominate.
600MW needed to fix Australian grid issues – And then read this on the broader effect/consequences of Musk and this Australia battery play. Per the BNEF article, the 100MW is going to cost South Australia $169M – if they need 600MW per the Bloomberg article – then that totals $1B – spread that over 1.7M people and 10 years – $5/month/person. With big solar signing the biggest deals yet in Australia – technology like this allows this region to cut dependence on fossils and jack their renewable – maybe $5/month makes good sense.
Energy monopolies driving Ohio prices upward (not renewables) – Because of ‘gold-plating’ and legislative bill riders electric utilities have made tens of billions extra since 1999 per a study. Gold plating is the process whereby a utility is given a guaranteed return on investment – via increasing rates – on all money spent. Buy a new truck? Charge the ratepayers + 10%. Redo the CEOs office? Charge the ratepayers +10%. No joke. The common refrain we hear is that adding renewables to the power grid is driving the price – except we know this isn’t true.
Quality of service figures for the electricity networks of Germany – The Bundesnetzagentur uses the information to calculate the system average interruption duration index (SAIDI) – This value has fallen from 21 minutes/year to 12 minutes/year. Germany takes on significant intermittent renewable energy in the form of solar power and wind. With the support of surrounding power grids, increased engineer experience, upgrades to the power grids, and more battery systems (50,000 today), zee Germans have been able to continually increase their grid’s up time – even as renewables keep increasing (more slowly today – but still growing). Expand Expanding Close
Net metering 2.0 slows down California’s residential solar market – And that is the way it is supposed to work. If the most energy is being used in the early evening (the duck curve), then we need fine tune our systems. Time of Use helps us better understand pricing as private people and business, we invest appropriately, and our challenges will shift.
JA Solar posts 16% revenue, 25% shipment year-on-year increase in 2016 – 5.2GW of solar sold at $2.3B is ¢44/W for solar panels. Gross margins were down to 14% from 17% – I’ve always been taught that healthy, long term business needs margins closer to 25-30%. Interesting note from the article – a new $1B solar cell factory in Vietnam was put on hold due to environmental issues.
Price Drop across Multi-si Value Chain Continues and Embroils Price Trend of Mono-si Products – Nice report – many product types moving different directions. A few items I am looking for – Will solar panel prices start to drop as Chinese demand slows by mid year? Answer – they haven’t begun to fall yet, but no significant demand bumps have occurred to drive volume up year either. What are utilization rates of factories? Answer – the Taiwanese factories noted in this article are running 50-60%.
Connecticut talking about a $15/ton carbon tax – The word ‘direct dividend’ is used to describe a portion of the carbon tax being returned to business (30% of tax) and private people (40%). 25% of the tax will be used to invest in efficiency/infrastructure. The article tries hard to paint that a carbon tax is coming – first they point out that many states in the region are doing it, and they quote a politician saying Washington DC is ‘sending signals.’ Hrmm – 25% of a carbon tax to infrastructure/efficiency…it’s something.
Since the northeast USA got some snow yesterday – here is a short on snow and solar panels – 1. Snow slides off – without frames it slides fast – higher angles it slides fastest. 2. Snow cleans panels as well any anything cleans panels. 3. Microcracks can develop from too much weight – research is being done. 4. Light gets through the snow – so much so – that it generates electricity even when covered. 5. Type of snow will affect how snow rolls off, as well as wind. 6.* Added by me – when that tiny bit of light get through to the panels, the panels heat up – and start to melt the snow (header image from linked video). Plus these benefits from the comment section.
Exxon CEO hid climate change communications from legal probe – First off, #exxonknew and they continued to pay third parties to lie to the public about the effect of CO2 on climate change. And they know the bell will soon toll – the question is how long can they hold off the wolves of public opinion, how much more cash can be generated? That’s all it comes down to. Money.
EIA probably going to underestimate their solar development projection, again – It’s almost a joke how the EIA constantly underestimates how much solar power will be built, and this matters because it influences policy and the public. Of course, it is a bit more complicated than a batch of great scientists missing data – and the EIA has responded to these criticisms. I’ll take the path that we need not look at the EIA for solar power projections in the USA – it’s not their job and they don’t focus on it (as they say clearly in their report). That means government folk ought not to pay attention to the projections and instead maybe look at Greentech Media who seems to get pretty close every year.
A carbon dividend really can slow fossil fuel use — under these conditions – First off, I don’t like this article at all. Don’t like how they describe things – and don’t like their conclusions/parallels to other programs. The reason I grabbed the article – I think whomever is writing this document is getting a nudge to use the term ‘carbon dividend’ in a headline.
California politicians getting oil money voting for oil – the question is – did the decisions drive the oil money? Or did the oil money drive the decision? – A lot of smack gets talked to Republicans regarding climate, but ‘moderate Democrats’ have shown almost as much support for fossil fuels. I do not think that simply getting rid of fossil fuels is a solution – but there are plenty of nudges that politicians have been able to do to better our situation, that weren’t done. Plenty of racketeering cases against Big Oil that should have been filed a long while ago, that weren’t because of a vote here and there. And imagine – these oil votes are in ‘Green’ California, what about the broader USA?
New York state: “Utilities should be using energy storage as part of their normal course of business” – We’re seeing energy storage grabbing onto more chunks of the power grid. There is a game that occurs inside of us – we see headlines of something happening far away, we see rich thought leaders do it, we see others we know do it, we see our competition do it – each of these occurrences build up a certain confidence in ourselves. New York State is pushing because they recently bore the consequences of a hurricane combined with ocean rise, and were reminded of the need to be resilient. The reason they chose this path i particular is because others had shown it to be sound. No fluff – just your normal course of business.
$100 trillion of institutional money in the world, and less than 1 percent is invested in anything green – I’ve heard $1T/year is needed to fix the co2 issue. Globally – $287B in green investments. In the US, $200B in 2016 in a broader set of technologies. These numbers aren’t covering the exact same area – but they give you a scope of the work being done, and that we need do more work still. After we juxtapose those needs with the available capital – we should feel a bit more optimistic on the financial potential. Solar, wind and energy storage projects are able to come on piece meal and relatively quickly, meaning cash flows back to investors start sooner than later – time value of money stress is lowered and money gets deployed again. Virtuous cycle.
‘Development of centrally-located artificial Power Link island(s) in the North Sea to connect over ten thousand wind turbines’ – ‘Power Link will be the base for transmitting generated wind energy to future connected North Sea countries: the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Great Britain, Norway and Belgium.’ The gloves are coming off and the engineers are being given the opportunity to innovate. The money is there, the demand is there, the evidence over the last decade that we can manage it is there – now we build it.
Header image comment – image source is Tesla’s Kauai power plant that was launched recently. Solid state electricity generation plus solid state electricity storage placed next to each other. Looking at the image is otherworldly to me – it seems weird that these vertical cubes and flat panels can drive society after so much of my existence means burning stuff to break bonds. The feel of future in this image – like it’s a movie set – makes the energy revolution seem all the more real and magical. Good luck Elon.
$200B in clean energy in 2016 – Since it seems political America doesn’t care about cleaning the planet unless they make money, here’s $200B a year that will triple by 2022. And guess what we’re going to use that leverage to put a crowbar between politicians and their US tax payer paid jobs.
“Do you think you’ve dreamt too big?” “Yes, but I do not regret it.” – The way the solar was deployed is too expensive, yeah – this is true. Years ago when this guy started, we were nowhere near where we needed to be cost and technology wise to make his vision economic – but slowly that is changing. People doing weird things sometimes brings us into the future. Rock on buddy.
Rhode Island going for 1GW by 2020 – While 1GW of renewables for a lot of places isn’t that great (remember there are single projects larger than 1GW popping up these days). 1GW for a state that takes 45 minutes to drive across is something to consider – not to mention that to get to 1GW by 2020 it will involve growing almost 10x from today’s deployed volume in less than 4 years. I work in Rhode Island on a regular basis – got a sales call there today. The businesses and private people are interested – paying $0.16/kWh with healthy demand fees adds up quickly.
Saudi Aramco selling $500B (?) in stock, investing $5B of it in solar – Groups representing $60 trillion (wow) in investment capital have pledged ‘to incorporate environmental, social and governance factors, known as ESG, into their investment decisions.’ Aramco is hoping to draw a slightly greater portion of these folks by making an investment in the largest oil company on the planet slightly solar powered. This is seperate from the countries $30-50B in solar power that is coming. $5B out of a valuation from $400B to $2T (estimates for the value of the oil company) represents 1.25% to 0.25%, respectively. Purist investors think its foolish to mix these investments, however – I’ll argue that the world is more complex than one line descriptions of what an IPO should be – and I am glad to see this, even if it is a slight manipulation of ‘clean’ to get what they want.
Solar power being requested in strategic locations to INCREASE grid stability – That’s right, none of this ‘solar power is bad for the grid’ crap – that’s 1999 talking. The utilities of the more advanced solar states in the USA – California in particular – are already mapping out where solar need be. And now, officially, Southern California Edison is ready to pay you extra if you build a plant that connects to the grid in predetermined places. Strategic solar power can lower the cost of grid upgrades – can lower voltage loss far from the factory – and with the right hardware, can offer additional services that the grid needs to keep it stable. Brave new world.
Abu Dhabi aims to close $872 million solar plant financing in April – 74¢/W is what you pay for 1.17GW in the desert. It wasn’t too long ago that solar panels themselves cost 74¢/W — actually like two years ago. I wonder if JinkoSolar is being given partial ownership in exchange for the solar panels – long term cash generation?
Utility sued by solar power users who believe net metering credits not properly applied – Taking this article, plus the lead regarding smart meters, pushes me further to think there is a need in the marketplace for better energy usage knowledge. Every item plugged the house can be better managed – and we ought be tracking usage on that level. If we’re doing that – then we’ll be able to know exactly what our electricity bills should look like every single month. Check out Sense.com for one such product.
Foresight targets new 250MW UK pipeline with fresh placing – In essence, the group is selling shares in a cross section of solar projects. I don’t know exactly how it pays out – but it would seem logical to get some sort of payment for the electricity being sold in a near real time basis. What is the global appetite for investing into solar funds? We know hundreds of billions. Trillions? It’d be interesting to buy enough solar power in your initial offerings that the collected energy revenue would be enough to considerably grow the solar portfolio over time, versus paying out for, say, the first five years. A 30 year investing that grows itself for the first five yeas before it starts to draw down. In the US making use of tax credits and depreciation would mean tax free electricity revenue to reinvest in new solar projects.
The basics of climate science were lain in 1859 by John Tyndall – ‘Tyndall’s most striking discoveries were the vast differences in the abilities of “perfectly colorless and invisible gases and vapours” to absorb and transmit radiant heat.’ Using the machine pictured above, Tyndall discovered that complex molecules like water vapor and carbon dioxide (plus others) were the best absorbers of heat. We knew the fundamentals of how we were going to heat our planet in 1859 – 158 years ago. Darwin published The Origin of Species that year…another ‘controversial’ idea.
Tyndall announced some of his early results on May 26, 1859. 93 days later, in Titusville, Pennsylvannia – Drake struck oil and the ‘first large-scale commercial extraction of petroleum” was underway.
Two reason I like sharing articles about the US Military doing green related technologies – 1. If the military is greening it will help the CO2 situation as the US Military might be the single largest energy user on the planet. Yes, I know many in the military are only greening because it makes them a more efficient killing machine, but I’ll take what I can get. And 2. The US Military is pushing the politicians and voters who care about military positions. These groups tend to not be as environmentally minded day to day, and – again – I’ll take what I can get.
Amazon to install 50 solar power systems, 15 in 2017 – Corporate America needs to save money and clean up their emissions. Solar power offers unique opportunities to box retailers and warehouse companies – a sq foot of rooftop can generate (not cost) $1-4/year and cover the investment cost in as few as 12 months. Buildings today are built considering integrating solar power from the first moment – this is something that didn’t happen significantly even five years ago. The Amazon facility being built nearby me in Fall River, MA was talking solar power long before a shovel broke the ground.
Energy pricing increase slowed down in Australia where more renewables installed – The standard argument you hear from the politicians employed by the fossil groups is that renewables drive up the price of electricity…except – they don’t. In Australia this very simple analysis shows exactly the opposite. What’s going on here? You and I know…its called competition from an energy source taking no prisoners.
Kentucky political ‘shocked’ people give a damn – It should be a national law that any politician that wants to submit a law against net metering, and is going to use the same stale excuse of, ‘solar…business plan needs to be subsidized through the average ratepayer,’ need be first educated on the complex reality of that statement. There are dozens of studies done by professionals showing that this is mostly garbage in our low penetration world that is peddled by the utilities to scare mom and pop. I’m shocked this excuse is still being used.
Rocky Mountain Institute expands Community Solar across the country – The article is a good read because it gives guidelines on how to get better pricing for community solar projects. The main drivers – get a competitive RFP versus a single quote (and write the RFP well!), bundle your project with up to 20MW of other projects, increase contract length, and work with utilities when placing the system. RMI was able to work pricing down from 8.5¢/kWh to as low as 5¢/kWh – a 40% savings. I agree with this model – its easier said than done to collect and organize 20MW, but it happens.
Japan developing wind market – What’s an island with zero natural resources to generate energy to do? Surround itself with wind farms is one way to go. The goal is to get around 10GW by 2020 – an amount that would represent 4.5% of electricity capacity. Currently, Japan has about 45GW of solar power installed and manufacturers are looking to expand the volume of energy storage installed to better manage the intermittents.
India’s powergrid getting $500M to upgrade transmission – The Asian Development Bank is putting the money up. I am sure the government of India is backing the loan, and I’m betting that the solar developers who are hoping to build 40GW of solar are going to be paying off the loan at a rate of around 0.1¢ to 1.0¢/kWh to transport their electricity from the fields to the cities. What’s more important than anything though – this is being built and the machines and expertise to create this type of hardware will grow globally.
JinkoSolar gives 9GW of guidance for solar panels in 2017 – In 2015, the USA installed 7.3GW of solar power. In 2017 – this one company will manufacture 20% more than the US’ 2015 needs. In the 4th quarter 2016 – Jinko shipped 1.7GW of solar panels. Jinko, while the largest solar panel manufacturer, is one of many.
USA losing jobs to South Korea/China in polysilicon manufacturing as a result of trade war – When the USA decided to tax solar panels and cells coming from China, they knew that somewhere China would respond. In 2013 the USA was proud of being a net exporter of solar power related technologies – led by polysilicon. That is no longer the case. Check out the chart of volume shifting from the USA. Taxing solar from China has led to a loss of jobs and production capability in the USA for polysilicon, increased the price of imported solar panels, lowered the number of installation jobs and slowed our progression toward cleaning this planet. Of course, I get that the purpose of the tax was because we wanted to protect American jobs manufacturing solar panels…how’d that work out in reality though? Much Chinese manufacturing is now building in Vietnam and Thailand to send to the USA anyway, skipping the tax.
30MW/120MWh lithium battery system online in California – world’s largest grid-tied system: Key quote, ‘California Public Utilities Commissioner Michael Picker said, “I didn’t expect to see these kinds of prices in batteries until 2022, 2024 …we are far in advance of where we expected to be.”’ This pricing, along with utility-scale solar power being at least half a decade ahead of its predicted price falls, means we ought to expect significant volume come online because of economics alone.
South Carolina solar developers pushing for state level tax benefit – A few interesting data points from the article, 1. ‘Landowners earn on average about $750 a year per acre in rental income,’ 2. 91 potential solar farm projects in South Carolina are on hold pending legislation, 3. Those 91 projects on hold would generate about $217 million in one-time property taxes for hardware sales 4. and $12.6 million in annual property taxes, up from the roughly $21,000 that they now pay as agriculture properties, 5. Solar companies had invested $5.4 billion in northern neighbor North Carolina and $1.9 billion in the southern neighbor Georgia. One number that was missing – how many MW installed would those 91 projects be?
NASA takes a cool picture – Link is to NASA’s website, with an easy before and after comparison system. 850MW of solar PV, some mountains, and a river from space. Pretty cool.
GA politicians wants to remove power from Public Utility Commission – When electricity companies were given publicly approved monopolies, the Public Utility Commission was created to balanced out the natural greed of self interest. The electric utilities, still, have many times violated the public’s trust. Now, a politician in Georgia thinks the Commission ought not have influence on how much renewable energy a power company should purchase. Of course, they use the excuse of freedom and market capitalism – but I bet they’re not considering a carbon tax to balance out ignored externalities. Watch the news as renewables now grow at 200GW clips in the coming years – you thought the politicians were getting strung about before?
Exxon, again yesterday via its blog, pushing for carbon tax and *government intervention* – Exxon wants a carbon tax because internal combustion vehicles will slowly disappear while natural gas, which Exxon is heavily invested in, replaces coal. A carbon tax on coal is about double natural gas – and Exxon is losing serious money on expensive oil investments. Plus an interesting phrase from a company that constantly attacks government: At ExxonMobil, we’re encouraged that the pledges made at last year’s Paris Accord create an effective framework for all countries to address rising emissions; in fact, our company forecasts carbon reductions consistent with the results of the Paris accord commitments.Governments can help advance the search for energy technologies by funding basic research and by enacting forward-looking policies. If you’re Exxon, you can doubly win – support a carbon tax that hurts your competition, while also making it look like you’tr supportinf international climate change agreements (many say a $40/ton carbon tax will mean we meet both Paris and Clean Power Plan goals). My prior thoughts on this topic.
World’s largest wealth fund urged to consider infrastructure investments – If $900B worth of investment money were pushed to invest 5% in renewable infrastructure, then we’d get the equivalent of 50GW of solar power from Norway alone. Money like this would flow from many soverign wealth funds globally, and it will join private capital from groups like BlackRock. These renewable investments are being considered for two reasons – they’ve shown long term stability, and they align with the fund’s general do no harm matra. Good, clean money being made.