Tesla is set to release its third quarter 2015 financial results later today, but we are already looking at the fourth quarter as registration data are coming in from some European markets. Tesla will need an impressive fourth quarter to achieve its 2015 guidance and it might get it from what we are seeing so far.

The company expects to deliver between 50,000 and 55,000 vehicles in 2015 and with the current official year-to-date total of 33,157 units, Tesla needs to deliver a record-breaking ~17,000 units in the last 3 months of the year to achieve the low-end of its own guidance. It would represent a ~73% increase over the fourth quarter last year. Since Tesla doesn’t publish monthly sale numbers or breakdown any data by segment, we have to rely on registration data to get an idea of deliveries for the Model S. European countries offer the most sensible data readily available and we already have October numbers for a few countries.

Tesla now sells more cars in Europe than in North America or Asia, making the region an important market to follow.

Some important markets like Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands are missing, but we will update those once we have the data.October_tesla_euro_marketsWe see significant increases in all markets over the same period last year and the company is slowly erasing the decline in deliveries in Norway, which is now down only 3% year-over-year versus 9% last month.October_norway_TeslaDenmark is another interesting market, especially since the country recently started rolling back tax breaks for electric vehicles. Model S deliveries in the country are up 73% based on registration data. From both Norway’s and Denmark’s charts, we can see that the company’s plan to implement a more stable delivery schedule rather than an end-of-the-quarter push is starting to show:

October_denmark_TeslaSweden is a market that came alive for Tesla in 2015. Sales were only marginal last year in the country: 184 Model S’s were registered in Sweden during the first 10 months of 2014, while we see 774 units so far this year. It represents a 320% increase.October_sweden_TeslaFrance and Belgium are both seeing increases in Model S registrations over the same period last year. Belgium is particularly surprising for its size and has been on run this year, although it will need a significant increase during the last two months of the year to continue its growth over 2014:October_belgium_TeslaDespite its population being several times larger than Belgium, France buys less Model S’s than its neighbor. Based on registration data, sales are up versus last year, but the market is still lagging behind smaller European markets:

October_France_TeslaJoin us tonight for a live blog of the third quarter financial results and following conference call.

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Other posts based on registration data:

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