Seth Weintraub

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Head scratcher

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Weird commercial from Toyota’s Youtube account that seems to embrace the critics’ concerns of Hydrogen technology. My immediate reaction is that that was an incredibly complicated process to make hydrogen.  As per usual, Elon Musk says it best:

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Tesla is sending out invites to the April 30th event. Yes, it looks like a big battery that will go in your home. We’ll either be there or have a livestream of the event or hopefully both. Catch you on April 30th.

The US Dept of Energy released its eMPG ratings for Tesla’s new Model S 70D and it is the first Model S to go over the 100 MPGe.  In fact it is more that a 6% gain over the Model S 60 it replaced. Some of that efficiency will be chalked up to the dual motors that Elon Musk discussed in the launch of the D lineup. However, such a huge gain in performance might also be attributable to losses made in the weight in the vehicle since the S60 was launched 3 years ago.

If you look at the compare to the heavier battery 85KW models, you see particular gains in city driving where stopping and starting is more prevalent – a place where weight matters. Musk noted that the P85D would see some loss in efficiency due to the performance tires on the 3 second 0-60 supercar model.

Some older Tesla Model S stats below:

PALO ALTO, CA–(Marketwired – Apr 22, 2015) – Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2015, after market close on Wednesday, May 6, 2015. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q1 2015 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

What: Tesla Q1 2015 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: http://ir.teslamotors.com
Webcast: http://ir.teslamotors.com (live and replay)

Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website.

This tale from the upcoming book Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, due out May 19 from Ecco, an imprint of HarperCollins seems a little far fetched (via Bloomberg).

In the first week of March 2013, Musk reached out to Page, say the two people familiar with the talks. By that point, so many customers were deferring orders that Musk had quietly shut down Tesla’s factory. Considering his straits, Musk drove a hard bargain. He proposed that Google buy Tesla outright — with a healthy premium, the company would have cost about $6 billion at the time — and pony up another $5 billion in capital for factory expansions. He also wanted guarantees that Google wouldn’t break up or shut down his company before it produced a third-generation electric car aimed at the mainstream auto market. He insisted that Page let him run a Google-owned Tesla for eight years, or until it began pumping out such a car. Page accepted the overall proposal and shook on the deal.

As an early buyer who had to wait almost 6 months to get my Model S, I don’t remember a time when the Model S wasn’t selling well. In fact for the $49,000 original price that I paid, I think the lines were “out the door” so to speak so I’m not sure how true this all is.

Tesla is going to make a home battery announcement on April 30th. It will be a big deal. But it isn’t hard to find some of the details on the batteries Tesla is going to offer. Analysts, like above^ are claiming to have “secret info” on the announcement: Tesla secretly tested its battery solution with 300 customers.

But that info and much more is available on Solar City’s website. In fact, Tesla’s Home Batteries including pictures and lots of details are all  hidden in plain sight:

Tesla will announce a consumer battery pack for running a house in the coming months

— Seth Weintraub (@llsethj) February 12, 2015

Tesla also gave plenty of details on their earnings call in February where Musk talked about releasing a consumer battery project:

Yes, we’re going to do — we’re going to unveil some of the Tesla home battery consumer battery that will be for you using and people’s houses or businesses, fairly soon. We have to design and it should start going into production probably about six months or so. We’ll probably got to wait to have sort of product availing it’s probably in the next month or two. It’s really great. I’m really excited about it.

If you’ve talked to Solar City, they may have provided you with the specs of Tesla’s prototype battery:

Tesla will certainly announce some new innovations that perhaps differentiate them from other batteries. Being able to Supercharge your Model S at home would be nice. Perhaps a Webb/App controller with some novel uses would be good.

I’d like to see it compared against home generators which cost a lot more, even before considering the savings against time of use metering in power. We’ll be on hand on the 30th to see what is on offer.

After the Twitter conversation with Elon Musk full of future hints, deadmau5 finally got his D on.

GM yesterday announced lower prices for the Spark EV, an already lowest price small EV in California and Oregon (And soon Maryland where much of it is built). The new price is $25,995 but after Federal and local incentives in the 3 places where it is sold in the US, the base price is just $15,000.  That’s by far the easiest its ever been to get into a good electric car.

Even better, GM now offers a $0 down, $139/month lease program over 39 months which should open up the vehicle to a whole new set of consumers who don’t ever want to visit a gas station again.

Buying an electric car for $139/month makes a lot of sense. According to figures you can tabulate by State from the EPA and an example in Georgia by the Union of Concerned Scientists electric cars cost about a half to a third to go per mile. That means if your monthly gas bill is over $200, getting the electric car is almost free. Throw in some free charging at many workplaces, note that the Spark EV actually gets better electric mileage than the Leaf, used below, and you break even point might be closer to $139/month.

At $3/gallon, that is just under 50 gallons/month.

Oh an you get a very speedy, clean car that can be charged to 80% in 20 minutes and has more torque than a Ferrari.

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I’m not sure 1.1Gs is what the doctor ordered but the kids seem happy.

He keeps it real (if not being pessimistic overall) usually and knows his stuff. Would like to see more of the charging experience to be honest.

Edmunds also gave it a pretty good report card

I like both the look of this new color and the specs on this hearty but not insanely priced machine. Blue too:

Tesla announced a pretty big leap in its ‘low end’ Model S today. Citing below 10% buying numbers on its RWD  S60, the company announced an AWD Model S 70D. That is good for 250 mies of driving with 329HP and 0-6 time of 5.2 seconds. It starts at $75,000 + Destination but all US drivers will see at least $7500 back from the federal government. Tesla also tallies a $10,000 savings in using electricity instead of gasoline. making the ‘starting price $57,500’.

Meet Model S 70D. Exceptional performance & value with AWD, 240 miles range + Supercharging. http://t.co/Mv2iVOQuwJ pic.twitter.com/zjiXSrfIv3

— Tesla (@Tesla) April 8, 2015

Warm silver, obsidian black, ocean blue. See the new Model S colors: http://t.co/Wairr7A22v pic.twitter.com/WTqqoUIebs

— Tesla (@Tesla) April 8, 2015

• Reuters Article

Summary

• 70kWh (70D standard) is replacing the Base 60kWh – Goodbye large frunk space 🙁
• $74,900 Base ($76,070 w/ Doc+Delivery Fees)
• New Colors Officially (Ocean Blue, Obsidian Black, and Warm Silver)
• Supercharging Standard and FREE
• 140 mph Top speed
• 0-60 mph in 5.2 seconds
• 329 HP
• 240 Mile Range (15% further than 60kWh)
• Design Studio redone
• No Loan Offering in Design Studio (Only Cash + Lease) – Financing Request Link available on Main Page.
• Autopilot (Convenience Features) are $2,500 or $3,000 to enable after delivery
• 8 year, infinite mile battery and drive unit warranty
• Subzero Weather Package is now $1,000 (up from $750)
• Rear Facing Seats now $3,000 (up from $2,500)
• 21″ Silver Turbine Rims no longer available
• Panoramic Roof is now $1,500 (down from $2,500)
• Textile seats now called “Multi-Pattern”
• Smart Air Suspension is now $2,500 (up from $2,250)
• Reorganized Pricing Structure showing true cost savings with Incentives and Gasoline
• 85D is now officially listed at 4.4 seconds 0-60
• 80kWh is offered with Non-Dual Motor option
• Premium Features include LED Fog and Cornering Lights

— New Standard Features —

• Free long distance travel on the Supercharger network
• Maps and navigation with real time traffic updates
• 8 year, infinite mile battery and drive unit warranty
• Automatic keyless entry
• LED daytime running lights
• GPS enabled Homelink
• Parking sensors
• Blind spot warning
• Lane departure warning
• Power-folding and heated side mirrors
• Automatic emergency braking

Interesting hire for Tesla

Former Red Bull Racing chief mechanic Kenny Handkammer has taken up a new role with Tesla Motors.After 25 years of F1 has become Global Director of Service Training for the electric car company, and will be based in the USA.

Takeaway for me is that Tesla seemingly has the ability to attract world class talent at will. Handkammer has 26 years of F1 experince, 13 World Championships and 97 race wins.

Presented at the 2015 Vail Global Energy Forum by JB Straubel, Chief Technology Officer, Tesla Motors Inc. Panel Discussion Moderated By: Stefan Heck. Panelists Include: Ned Curic, Sunil Paul, JB Straubel and Pete Trelenberg.

I found the slides and embedded below:

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I’m not going to lie. That Falcon Wing Door looks wonky and isn’t closed all the way. Hopefully this isn’t a problem. Also, that trailer hitch looks a bit old school. I was hoping Tesla could innovate the trailer hitch in some way.

I’ll wait to the official launch to pass judgement however

A good review without too many new items from the WSJ. It is starting to feel like the Tesla is becoming mainstream. Perhaps the most amusing and creative part of the article is the author’s attempts at negatives.

Here’s another problem: You can forget which of the enormous storage compartments you’ve put your groceries in: the front, where there is no occupying combustion motor; or the rear, where there is no evidence of a battery pack.

Dealbreaker right there.

Numbers keep climbing and with the Model X launching late summer Tesla should come close to doubling its 2014 totals. Oh, then there is the home battery division.

MIT Technology Review:

The true cost of lithium-ion batteries in electric cars is a secret closely held by manufacturers. And estimates of the cost vary widely, making it tough to determine just how much lower they must go before electric vehicles with long ranges can be affordable for most buyers. But a peer-reviewed study of more than 80 estimates reported between 2007 and 2014 determined that the costs of battery packs are “much lower” than widely assumed by energy-policy analysts.+

The authors of the new study concluded that the battery packs used by market-leading EV manufacturers like Tesla and Nissan cost as little as $300 per kilowatt-hour of energy in 2014. That’s lower than the most optimistic published projections for 2015, and even below the average published projection for 2020. The authors found that batteries appear on track to reach $230 per kilowatt-hour by 2018.

I think with the Gigafactory chugging along and Tesla claiming a 30%+reduction in costs from current, the $200/kilowatt-hour barrier isn’t far off.