Musk waffles about Tesla Roadster 2025 production – ‘close to’ finalizing design

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked about when the next-gen Roadster would be available during today’s earnings call, and his answer left much to be desired.

On Tesla’s Q2 earnings call in July, Musk was asked when the Tesla Roadster is coming. He responded that the vehicle would go into production in 2025, the latest in several delays for the vehicle which was originally announced in 2017 for a planned 2020 release.

But today, he was asked again, simply, “what’s going on with the Tesla Roadster?” And instead of giving the same answer, he gave a softer one, suggesting that the vehicle may well be delayed again. Here it is in full:

Well I’d certainly like to thank our long suffering deposit holders of the Tesla Roadster. The reason it hasn’t come out yet is because the Roadster is not just the icing on the cake, its the cherry on the icing on the cake. Our larger mission is to accelerate the progress towards the sustainable energy future, to try to do things that maximize the probability that the future is good for humanity and for Earth. And so that necessarily means that the things that are kinda like dessert – we’d all love to work on the next-gen Tesla Roadster, it is super fun, and we are working on it – but it has to come behind the things that have a more serious impact on the good of the world. So just thank you to all our long suffering Tesla Roadster deposit holders, and we are finally making progress on that. We’re close to finalizing the design on that, it’s truly gonna be something spectacular. Y’know, a friend of mine, Peter Thiel – y’know and sometimes people think that Peter Thiel and I are rivals, we’re really good friends – but you know Peter was lamenting on how the future doesn’t have flying cars. Well, we’ll see.

So, to break this down: last time, Musk said the Roadster is coming out in 2025. This time, he did not say that, despite that it would have been an easy enough reiteration to make given that he said it three months ago.

Last time, Musk stated that “we’ve completed most of the engineering,” and that Tesla was still planning some upgrades, but would go into production “next year,” that is, in 2025 (as one of the 6 big products Tesla says are coming “next year”).

But here, three months later – and getting close to the point where “next year” becomes “this year” – Musk could only say that Tesla is “close to finalizing the design.”

But then, we’ve heard almost exactly this language before, many years ago. Here’s an example from 2021:

In addition to this language we’ve heard before, Musk included a lot of hemming and hawing about the reasons behind the lack of progress on this Roadster, which some reservation holders deposited $50,000 or even $250,000 for, seven years ago now. That’s quite a long zero-interest loan they’ve given the company.

While it makes sense that the company would have other priorities than to release a supercar, the company certainly has plenty of resources available compared to the five vehicles it currently sells – and, perhaps, if it thought there were other priorities, it shouldn’t have taken $250,000 deposits 8(+?) years before release.

Elsewhere in Tesla’s earnings letter, the Roadster was listed as “TBD” and “In development” on a chart of Tesla’s current and upcoming models, much as it has been in the past.

So, no change here, despite the previous announcement of 2025 production.

Finally, Musk suggested again today that the upcoming next-gen Roadster would be able to fly, something he’s mentioned multiple times before. This would presumably take advantage of the teased “SpaceX package” with rocket thrusters which are intended to improve the car’s performance.

Given that many of today’s EVs are tire-limited in terms of acceleration (and basically all vehicles are tire-limited for handling), thrusters could theoretically be arranged around a car to add force in whatever direction is most advantageous to performance – either laterally for cornering or facing upwards to provide downforce and improve grip (which then helps cornering).

However, it should be noted that one of the primary ways to improve vehicle performance is downforce, not upforce (the latter is not even a term anyone has ever used, because it’s so harmful towards performance).

Downforce increases the apparent weight of a car without increasing its mass, which means that you gain the benefits of increased tire grip without also gaining more inertia which makes it harder for cars to accelerate, decelerate and turn. This was used to great effect in the record-breaking McMurtry Spierling “fan car” (watch the video in that link – it looks like playing a videogame with cheat codes on).

Putting thrusters on a car which enable to go upwards is at best a party trick, and at worst a waste of additional mass which could be removed to improve vehicle performance or comfort instead.

So perhaps I can clear up some of those engineering delays for Mr. Musk: stop trying to make the car fly. It’s dumb. This is not how basic, high-school level physics works.

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