Sometime this month, Norway will have more electric cars on its roads than petrol-only vehicles, according to an analysis of Norwegian government data.
The analysis comes courtesy of Bilbransje24, a Norwegian auto industry publication. It used data from Norway’s Road Traffic Information Council (Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken, OFV).
Norway releases detailed monthly information about auto sales in the country, which has been helpful for those of us tracking the EV market in the most EV-obsessed country in the world. It set another world record with 94% EV new car market share in August.
Norway has long been a standout, with the highest level of EV market share of any country and an aspiration to end sales of new gas cars by 2025, while other countries and regions focus on a relatively weak 2035 target.
But it even managed to basically meet that 2025 aspiration early, with non-electrified vehicles only making up a single-digit percentage of sales in the country as early as 2021. Some countries even abruptly stopped ICE vehicle sales with only a few days notice as sales continued to drop.
As is the case with most technologies, the last few percent is always a struggle, but we think getting down to single digits might as well be a win (for reference, California’s 2035 “ban” on gas cars still allows up to 20% of vehicle sales to be PHEVs, which do have a combustion engine in them).
And the combined effect of so many years of extremely high EV sales, and extremely low gas-car sales, means that we’ve seen the installed base of gas vehicles shrink as the installed base of EVs continues to rise. And now, finally, those lines have crossed.
There are more electric cars than petrol-only cars on Norway’s roads (as of… today?)
As of the end of last month, there were 751,450 electric cars in service in Norway and 755,244 petrol-only cars, each making up about 26% of the cars on the roads.
Given that EVs are selling at a rate of about ~10,000 vehicles per month, and petrol-only cars are selling at a rate of about…. zero (okay, maybe a few hundred) per month, that means these lines will cross around the middle of this month. So… just about now. (Update: OFV confirmed that EVs overtook gas cars in the last few days)
This does leave out one powertrain type though, diesel, which was quite popular in Norway throughout the 2000s and early 2010s. Diesel’s installed-based crossed that of petrol-only vehicles in late 2014, and they have remained the most common vehicles on Norwegian roads since then. There are just over a million diesel vehicles in Norway (that number will drop below a million at the end of this month), so diesel-only still reigns supreme on Norwegian roads, ahead of EVs.
But EVs are growing, and growing more rapidly than diesel ever did. And both petrol-only – which EVs just advanced ahead of – and diesel-only vehicles are dropping in popularity. “Peak diesel” was reached in 2017, though today they make up 35% of Norway’s cars. Peak petrol-car sales were reached in Norway in 2005.
Each of these numbers leave out hybrids, which make up a smaller amount, both plug-in and otherwise. There are around 208k plug-in hybrids and 156k non-plug-in hybrids on the roads in Norway now. The installed base of plug-in hybrids became larger than that of non-plug-in ones back in 2019.
And the installed-base of diesel and petrol vehicles don’t get driven as often as newer, more efficient EVs do, so the disparate travel distances have resulted in an outsized effect on motor fuel sales in the country. Last year, Electrek did an analysis of how Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil.
See more: graphs and charts at Bilbransje24’s article
Electrek’s Take
As usual, Norway is showing the rest of the world how this should all work.
Top comment by Preston
As the mix of vehicles on Norway's roads continues to shift towards EVs, petrol stations will close, and that will push the holdouts to convert. Norway has one big advantage here by being the first mover: people who convert should still be able to get relatively good value for their used ICE cars, as they can be shipped and sold in other EU countries. That also will help smooth the transition for Norway, but may be an obstacle for the slower countries to convert.
Meanwhile, most countries aren’t even close to having new EV sales eclipse new gas car sales, and Norway is already out here with more EVs on the road than gas cars.
For all the complaints and protestations of impossibility, the Nordic countries have by and large left gas behind. All have high EV penetration, led by Norway, and there have not been any of the widespread problems that fossil fuel propaganda constantly tries to convince you that high EV use would lead to.
Maybe instead of listening to ignorant clowns who are committed to increasing harm and costs, we should just take a look at how one of the happiest nations in the world has transformed its transportation system for the better, and take a few notes.
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