It remains difficult to determine Tesla’s current Model 3 production rate. This data is highly important at many different levels to reservation holders and the industry in general as the biggest electric vehicle production program in the world.
Analysts are not optimistic about the company reaching its goal, but the automaker has been increasingly registering new VINs for Model 3 lately – indicating that the production could be nearing 2,000 units per week.
As we previously discussed on several occasions, looking at the total of vehicle identification numbers (VINs) is not a great way to track a production ramp-up at Tesla because previous production programs showed that the automaker skips numbers.
Therefore, the fact that Tesla has registered Model 3 VINs over #15,000 doesn’t mean that the company has produced nearly as many vehicles.
But if the rate at which Tesla is registering new Model 3 VINs is accelerating, that’s a pretty good indication that production is also increasing.
After the company started taking orders from non-Tesla owners last month, new VINs were rare, but it picked up in March with Tesla registering about 1,000 new VINs per week and today it registered over 2,000 more VINs.
It results in over 4,500 new Model 3 VINs registered by Tesla in the first 3 weeks of March.
The company has been targeting a production rate of 2,500 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of March and while it doesn’t seem to be there yet, it’s getting a lot closer to 2,000 units per week.
The Model 3 production ramp has obviously been extremely difficult compared to Tesla’s own original guidance, but if you compare it to Tesla’s previous Model S and Model X production ramps, it’s undoubtedly going a lot faster.
It took Tesla over 4 years to reach a production rate of 2,000 units per week for Model S and Model X, but it looks like the automaker could achieve the same production level for the Model 3 in less than a year.
Tesla is expected to confirm the production rate of the Model 3 during the first week of April.
In my opinion, Tesla should get pretty close to 2,500 units per week, but it will likely miss the goal.
What will be interesting is if Tesla ends up delaying its goal of 5,000 units per week by the end of the second quarter.
That goal is especially important for reservation holders in the US. If Tesla achieves it on time, the company would be able to work through its backlog while keeping access to the full federal tax credit to the buyers.
What do you think Tesla’s Model 3 production rate will be at the end of the month? Let us know in the comment section below.
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