Tesla’s Model 3 is apparently still “deep in production hell” and yet the automaker is still guiding for its first Model 3 deliveries to regular customers by the end of the month.
Aside from Tesla’s own guidance, it’s still difficult to keep track of the important production ramp, but today we get another hint as Tesla registered another ~1,000 Model 3 VINs withNHTSA.
As the production ramp of the Model S and Model X taught us, VINs are not an ideal way to monitor a production ramp within a small and accurate margin, but it’s a fairly representative way to figure out the general progress.
For example, we reported last month that Model 3 VINs up to #1134 were registered with NHTSA even though Tesla said it produced only 260 Model 3 vehicles during the third quarter and vehicles with VINs over #300 were spotted during the same period.
Therefore, it looks like Tesla is jumping a few numbers, but nonetheless, higher VINs are generally good signs of a production increase – or at least a change in the production.
As we reported earlier this week, several VINs in the #500s have been spotted in the wild and now we received tips showing Model 3 VINs up to #2,136 have been registered with NHTSA – a jump of ~1,000 numbers in a week.
There’s no doubt that Tesla is having a lot difficulty moving the Model 3 production, which started in mid-July, to higher volumes. The company claims that the production line is in place and working, Tesla CEO Elon Musk even shared a few images of the production line, but there are still a few bottlenecks – reportedly due to suppliers.
We reported that Tesla had to change several parts in Model 3 during the first 2 months of production and before attempting a production increase last month.
Now the VINs seem to hint toward that possible production increase over the last few weeks or at least that Tesla is expecting to be able to increase production relatively soon. – hence the registration of the new VINs.
Again, we should know within the next few weeks if customer deliveries are delayed due to the production delays. Musk said to “assume the worst.” Conveniently, Tesla will discuss its third quarter financial results on November 1st – right after the customer delivery deadline.
It will be a good opportunity to get an update on the status of Model 3 production and customer deliveries. Early Model 3 reservations holders with currently ‘October to January’ delivery estimates should get a better idea of when they should be able to get their cars.