Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s analyst covering Tesla, has been predicting a new “on-demand mobility service” program for the automaker ever since he had a very one-sided conversation with Elon Musk in which the CEO said a lot by refusing to answer a question about whether the company plans on offering a service like Uber or maybe partnering with the startup.
Jonas has since been predicting that Tesla would announce such a program and he even modeled it into its valuation of the company, which currently stand at $245 a share.
Now that Musk said that he is about to unveil a second part to his ‘Tesla Masterplan’, Jonas sent out a note to clients this morning to speculate on what could be included in the plan. Unsurprisingly, it includes the ‘Tesla Mobility’:
“Tesla CEO Elon Musk expects to publish a so-called Top Secret Masterplan (Part 2) later this week. We share a few thoughts on what we expect could warrant such an announcement:
1. Tesla’s mission statement (www.teslamotors.com/about) is very clear: To accelerate the development of sustainable transport. ln our opinion, a business model based on selling cars to private owners who achieve a time utilization of 4pct and an available seat-mile utilization of 1pct may not be sustainable. We believe all auto firms, including Tesla, must confront this strategic shift.”
The analyst expects automakers to take a greater part in a mass transition to the public transport model:
“The auto industry is in the early metamorphosis from privately-owned model to a public transport utility. Exploiting the commercial opportunities embedded in 10 trillion miles annually (1.7 Light Years), 600bn hours of driver and passenger time (68 million years) and the associated content and data (for sale or analysis) may be worth a significant multiple of Tesla’s current addressable market for car sales.
We believe that Tesla’s unique advantages in machine learning and lack of exposure to legacy systems (internal combustion tech, unconnected cars) provide it with an opportunity to tap into larger and faster growing markets ahead of its competitors.”
For his valuation model, he anticipates as many as 5,000 vehicles in this on-demand mobility service, which he has been calling ‘Tesla Mobility’, by 2018. Previously, Jonas predicted an announcement for ‘Tesla Mobility’ before the Model 3 unveil in March. Elon is expected to announce the second part of his ‘Masterplan’ later this week. Let’s see if Jonas is right this time.
Adam Jonas is ranked #377 out of 4,038 analysts on Tip Ranks with a 47% success rate and an average return of 9.7%.