Solar installs surged 205% before the tax credit cut – and reshaped the market

The US residential clean energy market just went through one of its wildest six‑month stretches ever, according to EnergySage’s latest Home Electrification Marketplace Report.

For the first time, EnergySage’s flagship analysis report looks at whole‑home electrification, including EV chargers and heat pumps, using millions of homeowner shopping data points collected between July and December 2025.

The timing wasn’t random. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in July 2025 and eliminated the 30% federal tax credit for purchased residential solar systems installed after December 31, homeowners raced to lock in installations before the deadline. EnergySage reports a 205% year‑over‑year surge in homeowners actively working with installers, plus a record spike in inquiries. Many installers say they reached their annual capacity by October, forcing contractors and customers alike to make unusual decisions to finish projects on time.

Prices stayed steady despite massive demand

Even with the rush, prices stayed surprisingly stable. Solar costs rose just 0.4% to $2.49 per watt in the second half of 2025, while battery prices increased 3.6% to $1,074 per kilowatt‑hour. Most of those increases happened late in the year, after installer capacity tightened. EnergySage says transparent marketplace pricing helped keep costs from spiking, as they often do when demand suddenly outpaces supply.

Equipment choices shifted as inventory ran tight

Supply constraints didn’t just affect timelines – they changed what equipment people installed. Higher‑wattage solar panels became harder to get, so installers leaned on whatever inventory was available. Quotes for 450–460-watt panels dropped from 33% to 26%, while the 430–440-watt range jumped from 8% to 30%. REC, previously the most quoted panel brand on the platform, fell from 43% market share to 20%.

In other words, homeowners prioritized installing solar before the tax credit deadline over choosing their ideal hardware.

Battery add‑ons dipped, but not because interest fell

Battery attachment rates slipped nationwide from 41% to 38%, even though interest barely changed, dropping only from 74% to 73%. The pattern was stronger in major storage markets: California fell from 79% to 71%, Texas from 61% to 53%, and Hawaii from 100% to 85%.

The takeaway is that many homeowners chose to install solar first and delay adding storage so they wouldn’t miss the federal incentive cutoff. That meant a large wave of new solar households could still add batteries later.

Solar installers are becoming electrification providers

The report also shows how contractor business models are changing. Among EV charger installers surveyed, 55% said chargers make up less than a quarter of their revenue. That signals that many companies are expanding into multiple electrification products rather than focusing on a single offering.

Homeowners appear to be thinking the same way. Instead of shopping for solar, storage, or EV charging individually, they’re increasingly planning coordinated home energy systems designed to control costs and improve resilience.

What happens now that incentives are gone?

With the tax credit gone for purchased systems, the market is shifting toward third‑party ownership models like leases and power purchase agreements, which remain eligible for the incentive through 2028 and are already gaining share on EnergySage’s platform. The company says future reports will track how that transition unfolds.

The bigger trend, though, is structural. Rising electricity demand, higher utility rates, extreme weather, and grid reliability concerns are pushing homeowners toward energy independence. That combination – cost savings plus resilience and control – is becoming the new driver of home electrification adoption.

Electrek’s Take

The late‑2025 solar rush is a case study in how looming tax credit cancellation deadlines can supercharge clean energy adoption practically overnight. Kill a tax credit, and you don’t necessarily kill demand – you just move it forward in time. (That doesn’t mean killing the solar tax credit wasn’t an utterly ridiculous decision, though; it was.)

As for what happens next, the report suggests the market isn’t slowing down so much as evolving. Instead of buying single products, homeowners are starting to think in systems: solar paired with storage, EV charging tied into rate‑optimized electricity schedules, and HVAC electrification bundled into the same plan. Plus, if a homeowner still wants the incentive, it’s still on the table if they lease.

The companies that succeed won’t just sell solar panels or batteries; they’ll be the ones that can design and manage whole home energy ecosystems. And if the past six months showed anything, it’s that homeowners are ready for a design-and-build level of control.

Read more: EIA: 62% more renewable energy capacity is coming in 2026

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