Here’s what’s projected for electric vehicle manufacturing through 2030

Automakers worldwide will spend more than a half trillion dollars to develop new electric cars and passenger trucks, and also on battery manufacturing, through 2030, according to the latest report by London-based sustainability consultancy firm ERM for the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).

Electric car manufacturing will skyrocket

The report, the “Electric Vehicle Market Update,” is the fifth update to a report that tracks the current status and projected growth of the US EV industry. The original report was released in May 2019.

Here are some standout findings from the report:

• Global automakers are projected to spend more than $515 billion by 2030 to develop and build electric vehicles.
• In the US alone, 13 carmakers have announced plans to spend more than $75 billion to open electric vehicle manufacturing plants in six states.
• By 2025, more than 100 EV models are expected to be on the market and available to US customers. That includes cars, trucks, and SUVs. 
• Both global and US EV sales remained strong in 2021 – up 40% and 4% year-over-year, respectively – despite supply chain disruptions and material shortages.

And when it comes to medium and heavy-duty vehicles like freight trucks and buses, the report had a couple findings of note:

• Two new reports, including one done by Roush Industries for EDF that was released in February, found that electric heavy-duty vehicles like freight trucks and buses could also reach cost parity with diesel models this decade, many by as soon as 2027.
• Manufacturers have invested almost $2 billion in medium and heavy-duty assembly plants in the US that will support approximately 15,000 direct jobs.

Tesla sales are already skyrocketing

When it comes to electric vs. gas, car sales seem to be at an inflection point. A separate CleanTechnica report from yesterday found that US auto sales overall were down 18% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2019 (more than 684,000), down 6% compared to the first quarter of 2020 (more than 201,000), and down 16% compared to the first quarter of 2021 (more than 581,000).

But here’s where it gets interesting: Tesla, which is way ahead in the electric vehicle manufacturing and delivery game, saw its sales up 256% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2019, and 47% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021. It was only one of three auto brands (that’s both gas and electric) that got more sales year-over-year, along with MINI and BMW.

CleanTechnica notes that there are a number of theories why this is happening, but also writes, “The biggest losers seem to be old-school luxury auto brands with no electric presence, perhaps brands that would previously get sales from people now buying Teslas.”