Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is surging 18% over the last few days as investors are getting in just before Battery Day and the important announcements that it will bring.
On Wednesday, Tesla announced a 5 for 1 stock split that sent the stock price surging.
Despite stock splits not actually changing the value of a company, they have been known to increase stock prices temporarily as people anticipate higher volume from small investors.
Tesla extended its gain by 4% yesterday and now, Tesla’s stock (TSLA) stock is up again by as much as 3% in pre-market trading this morning.
The automaker is now valued at more than $300 billion.
There’s no clear catalyst for the increase other than a new note from Morgan Stanley this morning talking about Tesla launching “a 3rd party battery/EV powertrain supply business”:
“While there is still room for discovery leading up to the September 22nd Battery Day, the notion of Tesla supplying not only drive trains and software but superior battery packs to the auto industry is increasingly gaining validation, according to the Morgan Stanley Asia Tech team.”
Morgan Stanley increased its price target on Tesla based on this notion, but they increased it to $1,360 per share, which is significantly below the current price.
Nonetheless, the firm presents Tesla’s Battery Day, which is going to be held on September 22, as the next big catalyst for Tesla’s stock.
A quick message to TSLA shorts: get out before Battery Day.
And that’s not because Tesla will become a battery supplier like Morgan Stanley suggested.
I don’t think that’s impossible, but if it does happen, it is going to be years down the road. Late this decade at the earliest in my opinion.
As we previously reported, the real announcement at Battery Day is Tesla’s Roadrunner project which aims to solve battery supply constraints and enable Tesla to launch its many upcoming vehicle programs that are going to be massive battery consumers – namely Tesla Semi and Tesla Cybertruck.
Tesla is going to lay out how it plans to not be completely reliant on third-party manufacturers anymore. The automaker is still going to need them for the foreseeable future, but it is going to show a path to supporting itself with its own battery production.
Furthermore, we also expect some battery performance improvements being announced at the event, but I think that will actually be second to the scale and cost of batteries that Tesla plans to present at the event.
We also expect Tesla to unveil Model S Plaid at the event and there might be a few surprises.
But at the core of the announcement, and what I expect to be the real catalyst for the stock, is Tesla showing a clear way to scale battery production to solve supply constraints.
Disclosure: I am long TSLA.
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