There’s just over a week left in the first quarter 2018 and for Tesla, Model 3 deliveries will make all the difference as Model S and Model X deliveries are expected to drop from last quarter’s record.
Now several data points indicate that Tesla is making a big push with the Model 3 this week.
Home Solar Power
As we reported earlier this week, the automaker has been increasingly registering new VINs for Model 3 lately – indicating that the production could be nearing 2,000 units per week.
Today, Tesla has registered over 2,500 new VINS – just a few days after the previous record.
In March, Tesla went from ~12,000 to now ~18,000 VINS.
But as previously discussed, looking at the total of vehicle identification numbers (VINs) is not a great way to track a production ramp-up at Tesla because previous production programs showed that the automaker skips numbers.
The rate at which Tesla is registering new VINs is more important and it is undoubtedly accelerating over the last month and especially over the last week.
Furthermore, a record number of Model 3 buyers are reporting deliveries scheduled for this week, which is not exactly surprising at the end of a quarter.
The company often ends up scheduling a high number of deliveries during the last week of a quarter in order to be able to record the revenue.
Now Tesla looks to attempt to finish the quarter strong with a record number of Model 3 vehicles.
Last quarter, Tesla claimed to have achieved a production rate of 1,000 units per week by extrapolating from its production rate during the last few days of the quarter.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla pulls a similar stunt this quarter as it seems to be accelerating production during the last week of the quarter.
The company has been targeting a production rate of 2,500 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of March so that’s the number to beat. I think Tesla could end up quite close to it.
In my opinion, anything over 2,000 units per week would be a big accomplishment since the Model 3 production rate would already be greater than Model S and Model X production combined.
Tesla is expected to confirm the production rate of the Model 3 during the first week of April.
But again, I think that the most important factor will be whether or not Tesla ends up delaying its goal of 5,000 units per week by the end of the second quarter.