New DOT Sec/reality TV contestant signs memo to increase US fuel costs by $23B

Sean Duffy, who was just confirmed as Secretary of Transportation on the back of the transportation “expertise” he showed as a contestant on Road Rules: All Stars, a reality TV travel game show, wasted no time in promising to raise your fuel costs by at least $23 billion on his first day.

The memo, signed yesterday, promises a review of all existing fuel economy standards, which require manufacturers to make more efficient vehicles which save you money on fuel.

Specifically, the memo targets the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard (CAFE), which was just improved last year by President Biden’s DOT, saving American drivers $23 billion in fuel costs by meaning they need to buy less fuel overall. The savings could have been higher, but were softened from the original proposal due to automaker lobbying.

However, the new DOT memo says it targets all similar standards, rather than just the improvements made last year – so in fact, our headline likely underestimates how much higher fuel costs would go if the DOT follows through on this memo.

A recent analysis by Consumer Reports shows that fuel economy standards are enormously popular with Americans, and that maintaining the current standards could result in lifetime savings of $6,000 per vehicle, compared to current costs, by 2029. And that fuel economy standards implemented since 2001 have already saved $9,000 per vehicle. Now, imagine the net effect of removing all of those standards, which Duffy has directed the DOT to examine doing.

The Sierra Club responded to the decision with this statement: “These common-sense, popular fuel economy standards save drivers money at the pump and reduce dangerous pollution from vehicles. Drivers spend excessive amounts of money to fuel their cars, and it’s often a large part of household expenses. Wasting no time at all as the new Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy is selling American families out to Big Oil, burdening us with higher fuel prices and more polluting gas-guzzlers that harm our health.” 

Mr. Trump signaled he intended to raise your fuel costs during the 2024 US Presidential campaign, when he asked oil executives for $1 billion in bribes in return for killing off more efficient vehicles. Now, after he finally received more votes than his opponent for the first time (after three tries, and despite committing treason in 2021 for which there is a clear legal remedy), he’s already following through on causing the inflation he promised during the campaign.

As we’ve already seen to be the case often with Trump’s allies, the DOT memo lies about its intentions. Just like his EPA nominee, who said he wants to make the air cleaner by making it dirtier, Duffy, known for being a former reality TV contestant, says he wants to make fuel costs lower by making them higher. The memo attempts to argue that your car will be cheaper if it has lower fuel economy, even though it wont, because buying more fuel will mean you spend more on fuel, not less.

Unequivocally, over here in the real world, dirtier air is actually dirtier, and higher fuel costs are actually higher.

The result of this increased fuel usage also inevitably means more reliance on foreign sources of energy. The more oil America uses, the more it will have to import from elsewhere. Other countries looking to exercise power over the US could certainly choose to raise prices as they recognize that the US has just become more reliant on them.

And, as we know from the most basic understanding of economics, adding more demand means prices will go up, not down. Reducing demand for a product in fact forces prices down, and EVs are already displacing oil demand which depresses oil prices.

Meanwhile, Biden’s higher fuel economy standards would mean that automakers need to provide a higher mix of EVs, which inherently get all of their energy to run not just domestically, but regionally as well. Most electricity generation happens regionally or locally based on what resources are available in your area, so when you charge a car, you’re typically supporting jobs at your local power plant, rather than in some overseas oil country.

Biden’s standards would have stood to benefit US-based EV makers, the most prominent of which is Tesla. However, Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave hundreds of millions of dollars to Mr. Trump, despite it being very clear during the campaign that he intends to harm EVs, which his DOT is now following through on.

Musk has also thrown his support behind policies that will harm Tesla’s business (and Tesla recognizes this to be the case overseas), and thus its shareholders’ pocketbooks (though the shareholders are also doing that on their own, by pledging an illegal $55B payday to a bad CEO).

Some claimed that the result of this support would go towards ending NHTSA investigations into Tesla’s FSD technology, which the agency has heretofore taken a rather light touch on, and which are primarily focused on ensuring that the technology be implemented safely, which is something that everyone, including Tesla investors, should favor. But Duffy himself said that he would not intervene in those investigations.

Also, whiplash changes in regulatory regimes are typically seen as bad for business. Above all, businesses desire regulatory certainty so they can plan products into the future, and there are few businesses with longer planning timelines than automakers.

This is why automakers want the EPA to retain Biden’s emissions rules, because they’re already planning new models for the EV transition. They went through this once before, in the chaos of 2017-2021, where they originally asked for rollbacks but then realized their mistake, and now still complain about the broken regulatory regime caused by the last time a former reality TV host squatted in the White House.

Further, if American manufacturing turns away from the EV transition, or continues to make tepid movement towards it, this will only hand more of a manufacturing lead to China, meaning more decline of American manufacturing (compared to the huge manufacturing boom seen under President Biden).

The new DOT memo is just one of many inflationary steps that Mr. Trump has indicated his interest in. He’s also thrown around tariffs and tariff threats willy-nilly, which have the effect of increasing costs, harming growth and reducing innovation. (This is also the case with President Biden’s tariffs on Chinese EVs, and you can read more about why they’re the wrong answer here)

Finally, the most important problem with this memo is that it will increase emissions, which harms your health and increases climate change. Much like the other trends we’ve seen here, this administration doesn’t know much about the basics of climate science, which is already costing America $150 billion a year in increased infrastructure costs related to damage from natural disasters. Just yesterday, a new study came out showing how climate change created conditions that made the LA wildfires, which will be the costliest in US history by far at $20B, more likely.

And that’s not even counting health costs, which will be even higher. The aggregate of these damages could cost each American born today $500,000 over their lifetime.

But all of these harms will happen to real people. This isn’t reality television, where the intent is to make up drama for views. This is actual harm that’s actually going to be done to Americans, who are having a rough time as the global economy continues to grapple with the long-term disruptions resulting from a pandemic that was exacerbated by the same reality TV host, and of course the ever-present worsening climate change.

And so, Mr. Trump is doing his best to follow through on his campaign promises – which, in so many ways, will only make your life costlier, more unhealthy, less stable, and less secure from foreign influence. This is what 49% of America voted for.

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