During the first 10 months of 2025, solar and battery storage have dominated growth among competing energy sources. Further, all net new generating capacity in 2026 is forecast to be provided by renewable energy and batteries, according to data recently released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign.
Solar set new records in October
EIA’s latest monthly “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through October 31, 2025), once again confirms that solar is the fastest-growing source of US electricity.
In October alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar (>1-megawatt (MW)) expanded by 23.3% compared to October 2024, while “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV increased by 12.6%. Combined, they grew by 20.6% and provided 9.1% of US electrical output during the month, up from 7.8% a year ago.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic systems expanded by 34.5% while those from small-scale systems rose by 11.3% during the first 10 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by 28.1% and produced a bit over 9.0% (utility-scale: 6.86%; small-scale: 2.16%) of total US electrical generation for January-October, up from 7.2% a year earlier.
Wind + solar beat coal
Wind turbines across the US produced 9.9% of US electricity in the first 10 months of 2025, an increase of 1.1% year-over-year.
During the first 10 months of 2025, electrical generation from wind, plus utility-scale and small-scale solar, increased by 12.4% and accounted for 18.9% of the US total, up from 17.3% during the first 10 months of 2024.
Further, wind and solar provided 16.6% more electricity than did coal during the first 10 months of this year, and 10.8% more than the nation’s nuclear power plants. In fact, while solar and wind expanded, nuclear-generated electricity experienced zero growth.
Renewables made up 26% of US generation YTD
The mix of all renewables (i.e., wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) produced 8.6% more electricity in January-October than they did in the same period last year. It accounted for 25.7% of total US electricity production, compared to 24.3% 12 months earlier.
Renewables’ share of electrical generation is now second to only that of natural gas whose electrical output actually dropped by 3.6% during the first 10 months of 2025.
Solar + battery storage dominated 2025
Between January 1 and October 31, 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by 19,477.6 MW, while an additional 4,837.7 MW was provided by small-scale solar. EIA foresees continued strong solar growth, with 36,071.9 MW utility-scale solar capacity being added in the next 12 months.
Battery storage also experienced explosive growth, increasing by 45.0% since the beginning of the year, with the addition of 12,150.3 MW of new capacity. EIA also notes that planned battery capacity additions over the next 12 months total 21,940.4 MW, representing a further increase of 56%.
Wind has also made a strong showing since January 1, adding 3,796.0 MW, while planned capacity additions over the next year total 9,567.0 MW (onshore) plus 800.0 MW (offshore). (Note that these figures probably don’t take into account Trump’s latest stunt on December 24 of halting five large offshore wind projects under construction off the East Coast for at least 90 days.)
On the other hand, during the past 10 months, natural gas capacity increased by only 3,479.6 MW, and nuclear power added a mere 46.0 MW. Meanwhile, coal capacity plummeted by 3,241.1 MW, and petroleum-based capacity fell by an additional 476.3 MW.
Thus, since January 1, roughly the beginning of the Trump Administration, renewable energy capacity, including battery storage, small-scale solar, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass, ballooned by 40,174.4 MW while fossil fuels and nuclear power combined declined by 218.0 MW.
2026 will be about renewables and batteries
EIA forecasts the trends seen in 2025 YTD to continue and accelerate during the coming 12-month period.
Utility-scale renewables, including battery storage, are projected to increase by 68,528.0 MW. (EIA does not provide a forecast for small-scale solar, but the SUN DAY Campaign estimates it will provide an additional 7,200 MW.)
Meanwhile, natural gas capacity will have a net increase of only 4,167.4 MW, which will be completely offset by a decrease of 4,287.0 MW in coal capacity. Petroleum and “other gases” will decrease by 42.2 MW. Additionally, the EIA does not project any new growth in nuclear power for the coming year.
Thus, in 2026, according to the EIA, all net new capacity growth will be attributable solely to renewables and battery storage.
Should that forecast materialize, by October 31, 2026, the mix of all renewables, including small-scale solar, would reach 504,634.6 MW – almost equal to that of natural gas (514,018.2 MW) – and account for over 36% of US generating capacity.
Moreover, the installed capacity of utility-scale and small-scale solar combined (244,308.6 MW) would surpass that of wind (166,260.3 MW). Solar capacity would also handily exceed that of coal (166,649.5 MW) and more than double that of nuclear power (98,437.2 MW). However, the latter two sources would still have significantly higher capacity factors.
“As 2025 draws to a close, it is clear that, notwithstanding the roadblocks created by the Trump Administration, growth by renewable energy sources and battery storage has greatly outpaced fossil fuels and nuclear power,” said Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign. “Moreover, it now appears highly possible that renewables and batteries could account for 100% of net new capacity additions in 2026.”
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