Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and full year 2022 preview: Here’s what to expect

Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q4 2022 and full-year 2022 financial results on Wednesday, January 25, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.

Here we’ll take a look at what both the street and retail investors are expecting for the quarterly results.

Tesla Q4 2022 deliveries

As usual, Tesla already disclosed its Q4 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drive the vast majority of the company’s revenue.

Earlier this month, Tesla confirmed that it delivered just over 405,000 electric vehicles during the fourth quarter of the year.

This is a delivery record for Tesla, but the automaker actually came significantly below expectations. There was also a record discrepancy between vehicles produced and vehicles delivered. Tesla produced 439,000 vehicles during the quarter.

Delivery and production numbers are always slightly adjusted during earning results.

Tesla Q4 2022 revenue

For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers.

The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $24.669 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a higher revenue of $24.879 billion.

This would be a record quarter for revenue, thanks to the record deliveries, but it’s hard to estimate due to Tesla offering some significant discounts in December.

Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:

Tesla Q4 2022 earnings

Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last two years now.

For Q4 2022, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $1.13 per share, while Estimize’s prediction is higher with a profit of $1.19 per share.

The estimates have a wide range this quarter because of the discounts that Tesla offered in December. It most likely significantly impacted gross margins, but it’s hard to say by how much without knowing how many cars Tesla delivered last month.

The automaker also had over 30,000 vehicles in inventory or transit at the end of the quarter, which is also going to impact earnings negatively.

Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:

Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call

In the shareholder’s letter and the following conference call, Tesla generally shares additional details about not only financial results, but also other important metrics on how the company is doing.

CEO Elon Musk is not always on the call, but this time, he is expected to be since it’s not only the Q4 earnings but also the full 2022 earnings.

Top comment by Jon Snow

Liked by 5 people

Tesla will continue to expand at about 50% y/y for a couple of more years, then rate will decline yearly (as it gets exponentially harder to keep up a 50% pace) until they get to 10-20 million/yr in 2030-35. Utility / residential battery packs / virtual power-plants will be as big or bigger than cars by then and FSD / robots / the machine that makes the machine .. will be a thing. This is in motion now and only time/effort stand in the way .. world events notwithstanding.

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Generally, the full-year earnings are also when a company releases guidance for the new year, but Tesla is not like most companies.

Tesla has consistently just reiterated its intention to remain marginally profitable as it reinvests into its business and aims for about 50% growth in deliveries per year.

However, the automaker generally shares its planned capital expenditure for the year, so we can expect that.

Interestingly, Tesla recently announced a new “Investor Day” in March that sounds a lot like an earnings conference call or an annual shareholder meeting, so it’s possible that Tesla keeps some of the more juicy stuff that would have been said at the earnings for this Investor Day.

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