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Tesla (TSLA) is expected to deliver 200,000 vehicles, according to Wall Street

Tesla (TSLA) will report its Q2 2021 delivery and production numbers in a few days, and Wall Street is expecting about 200,000 vehicles.

As a public company, Tesla releases its delivery and production numbers quarterly a day or two after the end of the quarter.

It’s an important event for the markets, which Tesla is now big enough to move, and delivery numbers dictate most of Tesla’s revenues.

Ahead of the release, Wall Street is trying to estimate deliveries, and as we previously discussed, this quarter might be more difficult to estimate.

Delays in bringing the new Model S to market created a backlog at the end of the quarter, and on top of that, over 10,000 vehicles were put on a containment hold last month, which delayed many deliveries until Tesla was able to push its new computer vision system.

It results in the end of the quarter making a big difference in the overall result for the quarter, and even though we already have delivery numbers from China and European markets, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

A quick check of Wall Street estimates put deliveries at around 200,000 deliveries.

Deutsche Bank is right on the consensus with 200,000 deliveries, which analyst Emmanuel Rosner lowered from 207,000 deliveries.

He based the downgrade from expected lower deliveries in China.

On the other hand, RBC increased their estimate from 177,000 to 195,000 deliveries:

“Based on checks/regionally reported data, we forecast total 2Q21 deliveries of 195k units, which would be +115% y/y (lapping COVID qtr, still initial Model Y, China Model 3 prod ramp) and +6% q/q. Our new 2Q21 est. is above our prior 177k we penciled in post 1Q21 earnings…We believe some bulls are looking for closer to/exceeding 200k, though we’ve also heard buyside ests. as low as 175k.”

Last quarter, Tesla had 185,000 deliveries globally, which was a new record.

CEO Elon Musk wrote to employees last week that Tesla is “executing well,” but they need to “go all out” at the end of the quarter.

The CEO warned that Tesla was facing some significant supply chain challenges during the quarter.

Electrek’s Take

200,000 deliveries would be awesome, in my opinion, with all the challenges that Tesla faced this quarter, but I think a new record (anything over 185,000) would be good.

I was always a bit skeptical about 1 million units in 2021, as it would be dependent on the ramp-ups at Gigafactory Berlin and Texas, which are hard to predict.

Tesla would need more than 600,000 deliveries in the second half of the year, which would be extremely difficult to achieve unless the starts of production at both factories go super smoothly.

What do you think? Let us know your best estimates in the comment section below.

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