Tesla will deliver 500k+ cars in 2020, 150k capacity in Shanghai already

Along with Tesla’s Q4 2019 results letter, the company has updated us on their current production capacity and 2020 production plans.

Tesla currently has capacity to build 90k Model S/X and 400k Model 3/Y in Fremont, California, with an additional 150k capacity for Model 3s in Shanghai. By the end of the year, they expect to have 500k capacity for Model 3/Y in Fremont, and are in the process of installing additional capacity in Shanghai for Model 3 and Model Y.

Tesla’s 2020 construction plans also include “limited volumes” of Tesla Semi deliveries.

The other products in Tesla’s pipeline, Cybertruck and Roadster, are not expected to make a debut this year.

In addition to the above factory plans, work continues to move forward on development of “Giga Berlin,” Tesla’s new factory in Germany.

That factory is still listed as “in development.” There have been some local concerns, but the contract has been signed, and the first signs of construction have already begun. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently announced that Tesla might open a design center at Giga Berlin.

All of this production capacity has led Tesla to the conservative prediction that they will be able to “comfortably” deliver over 500,000 vehicles in 2020. Given that they delivered 112,095 cars last quarter, even mild delivery growth over the course of this year should make this 500k number achievable.

The more interesting prediction is that Tesla, “due to ramp of Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, production will likely outpace deliveries this year.”

Tesla plans the production ramp of Model Y to be complete in mid-2020, reaching installed capacity of 500,000 between the Model 3 and Model Y.

With the current Fremont capacity of 400,000 Model 3s per year and plan to ramp to 500,000, this makes Tesla’s plan look like they’re going to produce ~100,000 Model Ys this year.

However, given the new Shanghai capacity, it seems likely that Tesla will instead shrink Model 3 production in Fremont slightly in order to make way for more Model Y vehicles. Tesla thinks that, once each vehicle reaches its full ramp, the Model Y will be a more popular product than the Model 3.

They reiterated this prediction today, stating that “given the popularity of the SUV vehicle segment, we are planning for Model Y capacity to be at least equivalent to Model 3 capacity.”

Tesla’s factory in China is already up and running with an installed capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year, despite only starting deliveries there a month ago. The factory went from breaking ground to producing vehicles in less than a year.

Tesla is not stopping at the current installed capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year for Shanghai, though. The company has “already broken ground on the next phase of Gigafactory Shanghai.” This phase is primarily associated with the manufacturing of Model Y in China. Tesla did not say when Chinese-made Model Y deliveries would start.