Tesla Model S and Model X sales are not doing well, and Tesla is hiding that decline through its opaque delivery reporting.
As we have often reported, Tesla doesn’t break down its sales by model. The lack of transparency is frustrating as it makes it harder to track the health of its vehicle programs. Tesla is virtually the only major automaker to do that.
These days, Tesla only breaks down deliveries into two categories: Model 3/Y and ‘other models’. The latter includes Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and Tesla Semi deliveries.
This wasn’t too big of an issue before Cybertruck, but now that Tesla is ramping up production of the electric pickup truck, it is making it much harder to track Model S/X sales.
Earlier this week, Tesla disclosed 21,551 “other models” deliveries in Q2.
As we previously reported, Cybertruck recalls gave us a good idea of deliveries in Q2. We put Cybertruck deliveries at 8,000 to 9,000 units last quarter.
If we subtract those from Tesla’s disclosure, it would put Model S/X sales around 12,000-13,000 units.
That’s 31-37% down from 19,225 Model S/X deliveries reported during the same period last year.
A more than 30% decline in deliveries year-over-year is certainly significant.
Tesla is seeing increased competition in the higher-end segments where Model S and Model X compete with now virtually every legacy luxury automaker having premium sedans and SUVs.
The models are still highly competitive with those new entries, but the technology advantage is becoming less evident.
Electrek’s Take
Let’s start by making it clear that Model S and Model X are not super meaningful to Tesla’s overall performance as they are much lower volume vehicles even without this ~30% decline.
However, it could be an indication of what is to come for Tesla’s newer models if the automaker can’t keep ahead of its competition.
Top comment by EhCanadian
Luxury car sales are crashing across the board. Porsche's Taycan EV sales crashed, but so did their Panamera ICEV. Mercedes EQS sales crashed, but so did their S Class ICEV. The S Class is practically a bellwether of the economy, when it's sales fall you know a storm is brewing! The investment class is sheltering for a market crash. Regular consumers are reeling from rising interest rates.
Even if Tesla updated the Model S and X, they would be a tough sell in this economy. It's probably the worst time for Tesla to introduce the Cybertruck. A few years ago the Cybertruck would have looked really good against the $75K ICEV pickups Ford and Chevy were pumping out, but now Ford and Chevy can't sell their $75K ICEV pickups. Tesla reservation holders hoping for the promised $40K Cybertruck might have been able to do the "Tesla stretch" into a $75K Cybertruck when interest rates were near zero, but not now. The same applies to all pricy EVs like the Hummer, Silverado, upcoming Macan, etc.
Some people are even starting to talk about the return of "economy cars" that were last popular during the high interest rate 1980s. This makes budget EVs, like the BYD Seagull, and upcoming Hyundai Inster and Kia EV3, very important. These are the economic conditions where a Tesla "Model 2" would have shaken the industry!
Unlike last quarter, Tesla doesn’t have production excuses for Model S and Model X. It simply looks like these two models are losing a lot of momentum.
It’s understandable as these models feel like an afterthought for Tesla, which is much more focused on the much higher volume Model 3 and Model Y.
But it does highlight Tesla’s limited ability to advance several vehicle programs at the same time. As an automaker, it is probably Tesla’s biggest weakness compared to legacy automakers, who have more experience juggling several vehicle programs at the same time.
Finally, I’d like for Tesla to break down sales per model like virtually every other automaker other than itself and Rivian – who, to be fair, only has two models
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