Winter Storm Fern knocked out power for millions of people across the US and reignited a familiar political and media fight over what really causes large-scale outages during extreme weather. To separate the rhetoric from the operational reality, Electrek spoke with Leah Qusba, CEO of GoodPower, a research, strategic communications, and campaigning organization focused on advancing the global renewable energy transition.
In this Q&A, Qusba walks through what tends to fail first during major winter storms, what outage data shows about the role of wind, solar, and fossil generation during Fern, why fuel supply and winterization still matter more than the generation mix, and how coordinated disinformation campaigns exploit moments of uncertainty after grid emergencies and what works to counter them.
Electrek: When “millions lose power,” what usually breaks first? During big winter storms like Fern, is the biggest culprit typically distribution, transmission, or generation?
Leah Qusba: The “culprit” is almost always the distribution network, followed by generation. Transmission is generally the most resilient part of the grid, though it is also the most impactful if it fails.
Distribution networks are the most exposed and least redundant segment of the system. They rely on poles, transformers, and local lines that are directly vulnerable to ice loading, high winds, falling vegetation, and vehicle strikes. In Fern’s case, freezing rain coated distribution lines and nearby vegetation with ice, adding significant weight that snapped cables and pulled trees down into local networks.
When outages affect neighborhoods, it’s usually because distribution systems are damaged or deliberately de-energized for safety reasons. Transmission systems are more hardened and meshed, and large generators are typically designed to ride through cold conditions. Distribution damage, by contrast, requires hands-on reconstruction work – replacing poles, restringing wires, and clearing debris.
Distribution is also the most expensive part of the grid to harden because of its sheer scale. Burying lines can prevent storm damage, but at a cost: Undergrounding can run roughly $1 million–$1.5 million per mile, compared with about $300,000 per mile for overhead lines. As extreme weather events intensify, the cost of hardening the grid is only likely to rise.
Despite what some biased narratives suggest, wind and solar generation are rarely the initiating cause of large, storm-driven outages. During winter events, wind output is often strong, and solar simply follows daylight availability. The binding constraint is getting electrons through damaged local wires to customers, not a lack of generation on the system.
From a system-cost perspective, investments that harden distribution infrastructure and improve sectionalizing and restoration speed tend to deliver far more reliability value than debates about the generation mix.
Electrek: Based on outage data and grid operator reports, to what extent, if at all, were solar and wind the cause of outages during Storm Fern? What forms of power generation had the most trouble, if that was an issue?
Leah Qusba: Based on publicly available information, there is no evidence that wind or solar generation was a primary cause of outages during Fern. The overwhelming driver of customer outages appears to have been weather-related damage to the distribution system.
When generation does struggle during these events, it is often thermal plants that run into problems. Fuel lines can freeze, cooling water intakes can ice over, and coal piles have frozen at power plants during previous cold snaps. While critics frequently point to frozen wind turbines, modern cold-weather packages, including internal heaters and blade coatings, allow wind to perform well in cold conditions. Wind output during winter storms is often at or above seasonal averages. Solar performance during Fern appears to have been predictable and well accounted for by system operators.
For additional context, a detailed analysis of Winter Storm Uri by joint staff from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) found that inadequate cold-weather preparedness of thermal generators and their fuel supply infrastructure was a core cause of generation outages. The final staff report called for stronger generator winterization and better coordination between natural gas and electric systems to prevent failures of the thermal fleet during prolonged cold conditions.
Fuel supply is a critical part of this picture. Natural gas production facilities can struggle to extract and transport gas during extreme cold because the equipment freezes. That affects gas-fired power plants and can be costly for consumers. During Fern, natural gas prices hit record highs as demand surged and supply dropped by roughly 10% due to cold-related shut-ins. Those costs will ultimately be passed on to ratepayers.
Electrek: Multiple US Department of Energy press releases issuing emergency orders for backup generation during Fern quote Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying, “The previous administration’s energy subtraction policies weakened the grid, leaving Americans more vulnerable during events like Winter Storm Fern.” The EIA said coal “rose to meet demand,” while other sources argue a diversified grid reduced outages. What does the evidence actually show?
Leah Qusba: We need to separate political framing from operational data. The evidence shows a much more complex picture than simple narratives about coal saving the grid or renewables causing failures.
The primary driver of customer outages was damage to the distribution system. On the generation side, stress was concentrated in the thermal fleet, particularly in natural gas units facing fuel-deliverability constraints and cold-weather mechanical failures. PJM reported roughly 21 GW of thermal capacity offline at peak due to frozen equipment and other mechanical issues. This forced operators to dispatch more coal and oil generation at the margin. The Department of Energy also issued Section 202(c) emergency orders allowing grid operators to bypass environmental limits and access roughly 35 GW of behind-the-meter backup generation – mostly diesel units at data centers.
Coal generation increased during the storm, mainly because coal plants store fuel onsite and avoided pipeline freeze-offs that constrained gas supply. At the same time, wind and solar output tracked close to forecast expectations.
The “energy subtraction” argument typically refers to thermal plant retirements over the past decade and the claim that those retirements reduced reserve margins. There is a legitimate economic discussion to be had about planning reserve adequacy, but the operational evidence from Fern does not support the idea that retirements were the decisive reliability factor. The acute problems during Fern were about fuel delivery and winterization, not a lack of installed capacity.
The data ultimately supports the value of resource diversity. In ERCOT, wind and solar supplied up to 30% of generation during key storm periods, and post-2021 winterization efforts kept turbines online even as gas production dropped sharply. Fern was also the first major winter storm with more than 20 GW of battery storage deployed nationally. Batteries in PJM and ERCOT provided critical frequency response when large thermal plants tripped offline, effectively acting as shock absorbers for the grid.
Coal’s onsite fuel storage proved valuable when gas pipelines froze, but that is an argument for fuel diversity – not technology dominance. No single resource rescued the grid. The system held together through a combination of fuel-secure generation, emergency diesel dispatch, battery flexibility, and aggressive operator intervention. The takeaway for planners is the importance of fuel reliability, winterization standards, and maintaining a diverse resource mix.
Electrek: How have coordinated disinformation campaigns about renewables exploited Storm Fern, and what has actually worked to counter them?
Leah Qusba: Disinformation around Fern followed a familiar pattern: broad power system failures were quickly framed as evidence that renewables had “failed,” often before operational data was available. In this case, we saw a coordinated wave of social media videos, partisan commentary, and even official statements amplifying the claim that wind and solar weakened the grid.
These narratives spread despite grid operator reports and market data pointing elsewhere. Several viral posts misattributed distribution-level outages and natural gas fuel constraints to renewable intermittency, frequently recycling talking points from prior storms like Uri without regard to Fern-specific conditions. The risk is that inaccurate narratives drive policy and investment decisions that ultimately make the grid less resilient and more expensive.
What has proven effective in countering these claims is speed and specificity – using real data to explain, in plain language, what actually constrained the system. Equally important is the use of trusted messengers. Independent analysts and creators who can contextualize real-time data for non-technical audiences are often better positioned to cut through misinformation.
The Fern experience reinforces that disinformation thrives in the first 24 to 48 hours after a major event, when uncertainty is highest. The most effective counter is timely, factual analysis grounded in operator reports rather than ideology or opinion.
Read more: US electricity demand surged in 2025 – solar handled 61% of it
If you’re looking to replace your old HVAC equipment, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you’re finding a trusted, reliable HVAC installer near you that offers competitive pricing on heat pumps, check out EnergySage. EnergySage is a free service that makes it easy for you to get a heat pump. They have pre-vetted heat pump installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions. Plus, it’s free to use!
Your personalized heat pump quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here. – *ad
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Comments