Tesla Cybertruck sales are disastrous

Tesla confirmed that Cybertruck sales are disastrous in the release of its quarterly results. Sales of the controversial electric pickup truck are stalling a year into the production ramp.

Considering Tesla started production just over a year ago, it’s still early in the Cybertruck program. Some say it’s too early to say if it will be a success, but there’s room to be concerned that it isn’t and won’t be.

Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the truck, but we always doubted their buying commitment because Tesla had lowered the reservation deposit to just $100 for the new program.

Furthermore, the production version of the truck was more expensive and had less range than what Tesla originally announced.

Those issues compounded into Tesla delivering an estimated ~40,000 Cybertrucks before opening orders beyond the reservation program.

It has been hard to track Tesla’s sales because the automaker is the most opaque when it comes to breaking down sales per model. Tesla bundles sales of Model 3 and Model Y together and all other vehicles (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and Tesla Semi) into its “other models” category.

Today, Tesla released its Q4 delivery numbers and confirmed that it delivered 23,640 units of its “other models.”

Based on how Model S and Model X sales have been tracking, we estimate that Tesla delivered between 9,000 and 12,000 Cybertrucks in Q4, which is likely less than in Q3 despite launching the cheaper non-Foundation Series models and opening orders beyond those with reservations.

It’s also fairly clear that it is not a production issue. Tesla increased discounts and incentives to buy the Cybertruck this quarter. While inventories of its other models depleted at the end of Q4, Cybertrucks are still available and can be seen on Tesla lots.

There’s some hope for Tesla. We just reported that the Cybertruck officially became eligible for the $7,500 US tax credit today, which should help demand.

However, the upcoming Trump administration, backed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, said that they aim to take it away as soon as possible. Therefore, Cybertruck will likely only have access for a few months. It should help boost sales temporarily and until Tesla brings the single motor and cheaper version of the truck.

Electrek’s Take

We have been tracking the Cybertruck program closely, and we reported several times on examples of demand issues, but I didn’t know it was this bad.

There’s a real chance that Cybertrucks deliveries were flat or even down quarter-to-quarter despite Tesla launching the cheaper version. That’s wild.

Inventories and incentives also make it clear that it’s not a production ramp problem but a demand problem.

The tax credit will help, temporarily, and the single motor version will also contribute to volumes later this year, but I think it’s starting to be clear that Tesla will have a hard time ramping up the program to 250,000 units as planned, and Elon’s goal of 500,000 units pie-in-the-sky ambitious.

As I have been saying for over a year now, the Cybertruck program was a mistake on Elon’s part. It is what created this pause in Tesla’s growth. Tesla should have focused on cheaper vehicles as originally planned.