Tesla (TSLA) is expected to miss its delivery goal for the quarter and the full year 2024, according to industry analysts.
Tesla hasn’t been releasing quarterly delivery goals for years. Instead, the automaker has been guiding a roughly 50% annual increase in deliveries, with some years less than that and others more.
However, Tesla had to give up on this general guidance in 2024.
Deliveries have been down for the first half of the year, making it impossible for Tesla to achieve 50% growth and hard to grow at all.
Nonetheless, Tesla surprised with its latest earnings by announcing that it still planned to achieve delivery growth in 2024:
Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024.
To deliver more than the 1.8 million vehicles it delivered in 2023, Tesla needs to deliver 515,000 vehicles in Q4. That’s significantly more than the 476,000 vehicles it delivered during the same period last year, which was also Tesla’s all-time quarterly delivery record.
The automaker is expected to release its delivery results on Thursday or Friday.
Tesla delivery expectations
Analysts have been updating their delivery expectations for Q4, and the consensus currently sits at 507,000 units.
It would be a new delivery record for Tesla, but it would fall short of the delivery goal of 515,000 units, which would also result in a miss for Tesla’s predicted “slight growth” in 2024.
We have been reporting on Tesla’s performance this quarter, and it looks like the automaker is doing well in China, which is its most important market, but it is having serious issues in Europe.
The US, which is a more opaque market, is likely going to make the difference, but we won’t know for sure until Tesla releases the results later this week.
Electrek’s Take
Top comment by M3 2019
I for one have been benn thinking about buying a new Model 3 for over a year. I currently have a M3 2019 and thought a trade up would be a good idea. I would have purchased long ago if not for Musk's behavior and when he became so involved with politics in such a disruptive way, I cannot see how that s not going to eventually do severe damage to Tesla's brand. so, no I will not buy a new Tesla and wait to see what awaits the new year.
I don’t think deliveries will make a big difference this quarter. I think most people already see 2024 as a wash for Tesla deliveries.
As I previously stated, the Cybertruck was a mistake. Regardless of whether you like the truck or not, I think it’s clear that the Cybertruck will not contribute significantly to Tesla’s growth, and the focus on the program over the last few years has resulted in this pause in Tesla’s growth.
Instead, Tesla should have focused on cheaper electric vehicles, which seems to be the focus in 2025.
Hopefully, Tesla will return to growth in 2025, but it could be difficult. While the new Model Y and the two new cheaper vehicles built on Model 3/Y should help, EV incentives are expected to go away in the US and competition is increasing in China.
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