Skip to main content

Tesla (TSLA) is expected to have tough quarter for deliveries again

Tesla (TSLA) is again expected to have a difficult quarter for electric vehicle deliveries as estimates are going down.

Last quarter was a rough one for Tesla. The automaker delivered 386,810 vehicles – down 20% quarter-over-quarter and 8.5% year-over-year.

Tesla is so important to the electric vehicle industry that the results dragged the entire EV sales down, especially in the US.

The automaker had some real problems that affected production, like the ramp-up of the new Model 3 at the Fremont factory and shutdowns due to supply chain issues at Gigafactory Berlin.

However, Tesla is also believed to have some demand issues, as these production issues can’t explain the entire 46,000-vehicle discrepancy between production and deliveries last quarter.

Now, the automaker is about to conclude its second quarter, and all eyes are on the upcoming results next week.

Tesla Q2 expectations

The Wall Street estimate consensus is at 450,000 deliveries, which is down from the 466,000 vehicles Tesla delivered during the same period last year.

That alone would be bad, but things could get worse.

Like last quarter, the estimates are expected to go down throughout the week as analysts adjust their expectations.

The more recent estimates from analysts are already significantly below the 450,000 consensus, which should bring it down by the end of the week.

Europe seems to be a problem for Tesla this year. According to registration trackers, Tesla is more than 60,000 deliveries off from its record year in 2023 so far in 2024:

With most of the difference happening over the last few months, Q2 could prove to make it a difficult quarter for Tesla in Europe.

China is still Tesla’s most important market and things are looking up there for the automaker over the last month – thanks to strong new incentives, like reduced interest rates.

Data is more opaque in the US. Tesla has also implemented incentives there, and more recently, the Model 3 Long Range getting access to the federal tax credit could have helped close the gap.

Electrek’s Take

Top comment by HalfwitWizard

Liked by 40 people

I think it's probably also worth mentioning how a lot of people just don't want to buy something from Elon Musk anymore. I was dead set on a model 3 for years as my next car. I'd go to the configurator every month and choose different options and I'd go look at accessories and things like that while I saved up. But I decided to go a different direction instead specifically because of his increasingly erratic behavior. I just didn't want to support it, the anti-Semitic stuff, wasting all that money on twitter, the secret contract baby's he keeps having with executives, the treatment of employees, it's just all adding up to a person I don't want to give money to, even if that product is phenomenal.

I got a Bolt EUV and saved a ton of money. I don't pretend to say that it is nearly as good as a Model 3 in almost any way, but going from an old ICE SUV to a smaller crossover EV was amazing and I don't regret not going with Tesla at all. Probably looking at he Rivian R3 or Kia EV4 in five or so years, there'll be plenty of choice.

View all comments

We get a lot of news about EV sales crashing lately, but to be fair, it was mostly due to Tesla’s performance in Q1. The automaker is so critical to global EV sales, and especially US EV sales, that a bad quarter affects the entire industry.

It is disappointing to see that we are likely going to have another quarter down year-over-year in deliveries, especially considering that the automaker claimed to have a record number of vehicles in transit at the end of last quarter.

I would have thought that it would have easily helped Tesla beat last year’s 466,000 deliveries in Q2, but it doesn’t sound like it.

What do you think? Where do you think Tesla will land in terms of deliveries in Q2? Let us know in the comment section below.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Stay up to date with the latest content by subscribing to Electrek on Google News. You’re reading Electrek— experts who break news about Tesla, electric vehicles, and green energy, day after day. Be sure to check out our homepage for all the latest news, and follow Electrek on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn to stay in the loop. Don’t know where to start? Check out our YouTube channel for the latest reviews.

Comments

Author

Avatar for Fred Lambert Fred Lambert

Fred is the Editor in Chief and Main Writer at Electrek.

You can send tips on Twitter (DMs open) or via email: fred@9to5mac.com

Through Zalkon.com, you can check out Fred’s portfolio and get monthly green stock investment ideas.


Manage push notifications

notification icon
We would like to show you notifications for the latest news and updates.
notification icon
You are subscribed to notifications
notification icon
We would like to show you notifications for the latest news and updates.
notification icon
You are subscribed to notifications