Elon Musk puts Tesla Cybertruck production estimate much lower than anticipated

Elon Musk has shared a Tesla Cybertruck production estimate, and it is much lower than many anticipated.

Despite the design of the electric pickup truck being polarizing, everything pointed to the Cybertruck having robust demand.

A tally showed that the Cybertruck had received over 1.5 million reservations. To be fair, those reservations only required a $100 refundable deposit, so it is not the strongest show of interest, but it is still an impressive number of reservations.

Many Tesla fans and analysts believed that the automaker could produce Cybertrucks at the same rate as some 1-million units pickup program in the US, like the F-150.

However, CEO Elon Musk has now managed expectations down.

During a presentation at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting yesterday, Musk reiterated Tesla’s goal to bring Cybertruck to production later this year and volume production next year. This has been the timeline since earlier this year.

The presentation was followed by a Q&A, during which a Tesla shareholder asked Musk about Tesla’s planned peak production capacity for Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas. The CEO answered:

There will be a S-curve production. So it will be slow at first, and then ramping up. I guess we will see what the demand is but we are likely to make 250,000 a year – maybe more. It depends what the demand is like.

He later added that he believes it would be between 250,000 and 500,000 units a year. The CEO also said, “It will be hard to make the Cybertruck affordable.”

Electrek’s Take

This is an interesting comment. My biggest takeaway is that we should brace ourselves for an update on Cybertruck pricing.

We already knew that the $40,000 to $80,000 options originally announced are now unrealistic following inflation, but I think those who were expecting a modest increase will now have to adjust their expectations.

Obviously, the more expensive versions will come first. So I think we will not see a Cybertruck cheaper than likely $70,000 until 2025. If you were looking for a base version for less than $50,000, I don’t think that will happen. As for cheaper than $60,000, probably not until 2026.