Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with over 500,000 cars produced in China next year, supply chain report says

Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with a quicker production ramp than previously expected at Gigafactory Shanghai, based on a new supply chain report.

At the end of last quarter, Tesla reported a production capacity of 250,000 Model 3 cars at Gigafactory Shanghai in China.

Production is expected to grow greatly in 2021 with the start of Model Y production at the factory.

As we previously reported, Tesla has been doing major construction that is resulting in more than doubling the size of the factory.

Now a new report using anonymous sources, including sources within the supply chain, from China’s 36Kr, claim that Tesla is about to surprise us with even higher production.

They state that Tesla plans to produce 550,000 vehicles, including 300,000 Model 3 cars and 250,000 Model Y cars, at Gigafactory Shanghai in 2021.

When Tesla started building its Gigafactory in Shanghai, in an attempt to reassure people that the automaker wasn’t just shifting production capacity to China, CEO Elon Musk was adamant that it would supply local demand in China and not export to other markets.

Earlier this year, reports coming out of China indicated that Tesla changed its mind and was now planning to start exporting made-in-China Model 3 vehicles to other markets.

It was confirmed last month when Tesla shipped out the first 7,000 made-in-China Model 3 to Europe.

Now the report from 36Kr states that out of the 550,000 cars Tesla plans to produce in China next year, they also plan to export “about 100,000 Model 3 units and 10,000 Model Y units.”

It is unclear where those Model Y vehicles are going to be exported as Tesla has previously said that they would introduce the Model Y in Europe when they would start producing it at Gigafactory Berlin.

Electrek’s Take

This report is unconfirmed and I would take it with a grain of salt, but it’s not impossible, either.

Tesla never confirmed an actual production rate for Gigafactory Shanghai in 2021, but more than 500,000 vehicles would be significantly higher than what I assume most people would have expected.

Tesla has already impressed with the production capacity at Gigafactory Shanghai. Personally, I think it would be a great success if Tesla produces 400,000 vehicles at Gigafactory Shanghai in 2021.