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Tesla could surprise with near-record deliveries in Q2 despite pandemic

Tesla could surprise with near-record deliveries during the second quarter with stronger-than-anticipated deliveries despite the global pandemic.

During the second quarter, the automotive market took a giant hit everywhere around the globe except in China.

Tesla is no exception, since its Fremont factory, where it produces the majority of its vehicles, has been forced to shut down from the end of March to early May.

The automaker’s sale and delivery operations were also badly affected due to social distancing and other restrictions put in place in many markets to try to slow down the spread of the virus.

Wall Street and automotive analysts have been predicting that Tesla’s deliveries would be between 60,000 and 70,000 units during the second quarter, which would represent a more than 25% drop over the same period last year.

However, Electrek has now learned that Tesla might surprise with much higher deliveries than expected — even maybe getting close to beating its last Q2 record of 95,000 deliveries.

Sources familiar with the matter told Electrek that deliveries in North America have picked up greatly in June, with already more than 50,000 deliveries and almost 10,000 vehicles in transit.

With Asian and European markets, Tesla is likely to beat the consensus based on our information.

Tesla has run into some logistics-related issues due to new measures related to the pandemic causing issues at rail yards and trucking companies.

It’s leading Tesla to delay many orders over the last few weeks, according to buyer reports.

It led Tesla CEO Elon Musk to apologize to customers last night:

Tesla’s delivery goal will be dependent on fixing some of those logistics issues in the next few days to get the cars in transit to customers by the end of the month.

Electrek has learned that the executive team has made it the top priority right now.

Electrek’s Take

I am not gonna lie. This is extremely surprising to me.

Like many, I thought Q2 would be a bloodbath early on, but data from China and deliveries in some states in April and May have pushed to conservatively see Tesla delivering 60,000 cars in Q2.

Boy was I wrong.

Now I see 90,000 deliveries as achievable, and if Tesla can smooth deliveries in the next few days, they could even come close to the previous Q2 record, which I suspect Tesla is trying to beat.

I think China will easily reach 30,000 deliveries, thanks to Gigafactory Shanghai, and Europe will be extremely low.

The factory shutdown happened during Tesla’s cycle of production meant for Europe, which means that the volume that went on ships there was really low.

Tesla delivered only 5,600 vehicles in Europe during the first two months of the quarter.

Generally, European Tesla deliveries spike during the third month of a quarter as ships unload a ton of vehicles, but Tesla’s production volume for Europe was much lower this quarter.

I would put European deliveries at around 10,000 units. Add China at 30,000 units and other markets at 2,000 units, and you would have around 42,000 vehicles without North America.

Right now, it looks to me like over 85,000 deliveries is almost guaranteed, and depending on how Tesla handles the logistics issues over the next few days, Tesla could reach 95,000 deliveries.

That would be insane to me, but apparently it’s achievable. I think that’s probably what Elon hinted at when he referenced a “good outcome” in an email to employees we leaked earlier this week.

My understanding is that Tesla has been able to ramp up Model Y production in the last few weeks, though again, I would be happier with Tesla slowing down production and focusing on quality, which has been an issue with the new electric SUV.

What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.

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