Just over a day after registering a record batch of Model 3 VINs, Tesla quickly registered early this morning another important batch of almost 3,000 Model 3 VINs – making it a record week and indicating a healthy production ramp.
As we reported yesterday, several Tesla naysayers, like the Wall Street Journal’s Michael Rapoport, suggested that Tesla is inflating the production rate at the end of each quarter and then fails to sustain the rate into the new quarter due to the fact that the automaker only achieved its record production rate during the last week of the quarter.
The argument is not without credibility since it’s evident that the Model 3 production rate fell after Tesla achieved a Model 3 production capacity of ~1,000 units per week at the end of the fourth quarter.
But it certainly doesn’t appear to be the case this quarter.
After Tesla announced that it reached a production rate of 2,000 Model 3 vehicles per week at the end of the first quarter, the company registered a record 4,793 new Model 3 VINs with NHTSA yesterday and another 2,915 VINs today:
That adds up to a record 7,708 VINs this week and the highest VIN is now #28,289.
As we previously discussed on several occasions, looking at the total of vehicle identification numbers (VINs) is not a great way to track a production ramp-up at Tesla because previous production programs showed that the automaker skips numbers.
Therefore, the fact that Tesla has registered Model 3 VINs over #28,000 doesn’t mean that the company has produced nearly as many vehicles.
But if the rate at which Tesla is registering new Model 3 VINs is accelerating, that’s a pretty good indication that production is also increasing.
And it is certainly increasing at an extremely accelerated pace this week.
It looks like Elon Musk sleeping on the factory floor might actually have an impact.
While Tesla officially missed its goal for last quarter, I think the goal of 5,000 units per week for the end of the second quarter is starting to look much more achievable at this point.
Short-term goals are always difficult to predict in an exponential production ramp, but if Tesla is sustaining and even now quite possibly increasing its recent surge in Model 3 production rate, 3 months might actually be enough to more than double the rate from the end of the first quarter.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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