Once seen as a fad by industry watchers and auto executives, most would now admit that the rise of electric cars seems inevitable. Countries like Norway, where electric cars recently reached 42% of total new car sales, show that it is the future.
The US is definitely trailing behind, but the growth rate is now increasing and with several new electric cars coming to market, it’s likely about to blow up.
Peter O’Connor of the Union of Concerned Scientists noted this week that the US electric vehicle market saw a 32% annual growth rate between 2012-2016 and it is now reaching 40%.
He makes a projection based on the growth rate:
“But what if the market were actually hitting a “tipping point” such that this recent growth could continue? If a 40% growth rate could be sustained for the next six years, then we would see EVs reach 10% of US vehicle sales in 2023, and possibly near 20% by 2025.”
That’s encouraging, but as we previously reported, the current growth is likely to be dwarfed by what’s coming in the next 2 years.
With Tesla’s Model 3 launching this month and early deliveries being concentrated in the US, the vehicle alone could double annual EV sales in the country by the end of next year if Tesla can achieve its production goal, which is a big if.
But other vehicles coming in the next year will also contribute to EV growth in the US.
The next-gen Nissan Leaf is coming by the end of the year and it is likely going to boost the sales of Nissan’s tired flagship EV with a design refresh and longer range.
Other vehicles, like the Audi e-tron quattro, are also coming next year and should steal a few market shares from gas-powered counterparts in the premium segment.
That’s just for 2018. Between 2019 and 2020, a dozen more electric cars are expected to hit the market and most of them shouldn’t be strictly compliance cars. Even if just half of them end up being mass-produced, it would still have a great impact on the adoption of electric cars.
With stronger fuel consumption and zero emission mandates, Europe and China are expected to beat the US, but what do you think? Can the states catch up with the new electric car models? Let us know in the comment section below.
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