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Tesla received more than 325,000 Model 3 reservations after one week – $14B in “implied future sales”


Tesla confirmed having received more than 325,000 Model 3 reservations a week after opening the process to the public. The automaker claims that it corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales.

The company is calculating “implied future sales” on an estimated average sale price of $42,000 after options and by assuming that everyone who placed a deposit will convert it to an order, which adds up to $13.6 billion.

The company confirmed the news in a blog post this morning:

The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream

A week ago, we started taking reservations for Model 3, and the excitement has been incredible. We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever. This interest has spread completely organically. Unlike other major product launches, we haven’t advertised or paid for any endorsements. Instead, this has been a true grassroots effort driven by the passion of the Tesla team that’s worked so hard to get to this point and our current and future customers who believe so strongly in what we are trying to achieve. Most importantly, we are all taking a huge step towards a better future by accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.

We want to thank everyone who has shown their faith in Tesla and the mission of electric vehicles. We would write more, but we need to get back to increasing our Model 3 production plans!

In an email sent out last night, Tesla confirmed increasing its production plans to minimize the wait for Model 3.

Tesla’s multi-step reservation process was undeniably very successful. It started with Tesla and SpaceX employees, followed by in-store reservations, which created long queues at Tesla’s retail locations, and finally online reservations just an hour before the unveiling, Tesla finally launched the Model 3.

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A huge step indeed. As we reported earlier this morning, even though Tesla probably won’t deliver a single Model 3 for another 18 months, it is already disrupting the industry. Yesterday, Daimler shareholders have expressed concerns over the impact of the vehicle following its unveiling.

Update: Musk commented on the new 325,000 figure:

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  1. Isak - 7 years ago

    Nicely done, they have understood that Twitter isn’t optimal for these types of news 🙂

  2. Steve Grenier - 7 years ago

    Very impressive. I wonder how many they would have gotten if the fee was ~$2000. I’m guessing not much different. For those of us interested in buying one, it’s not that much more.

    • Isak - 7 years ago

      Yeah! Maybe if they’d known the turnout, they’d have set a higher deposit. Assuming they were expecting maybe 100k and not 300…

    • darthbelichick07 - 7 years ago

      You think the fee makes that much of a difference to them? I realize they just generated the equivalent of a $325M Kickstarter campaign, but I’m wondering if they truly needed the money to ramp, or if the fee was more to gauge REAL interest in a way that shows some form of customer commitment. I’m thinking more the latter.

      I thought $1K was just about right. And, the more pre-orders the better. The Leaf and Prius are selling in the 15-20K range/year. Tesla’s preorders are 20x those numbers and climbing. Just insane.

      • Fred Lambert - 7 years ago

        It’s both. It’s great data for production planning and service per region. But Tesla can use $300 million too. They had $1.2b cash on last filing. $300m makes a big difference to cash reserve

      • Yen - 7 years ago

        @darthbelichick07 It will also help bolster stock price and thus capital raising, most likely through bonds

    • MorinMoss - 7 years ago

      People react funnily to different pricing thresholds, that’s why you see so many things offered at $x.99.
      Perhaps $2000 would have put off some who didn’t blink at $1000 but I think Tesla could have asked for $1250 or even $1500 and gotten the same number of reservations, which would have meant an extra $75-150 million

  3. Matth - 7 years ago

    I wonder how many would have turned out if there was not a tax credit of $7500 running out.
    I am curious about what kind of must have options they have so that they assume a lot of people will take avg 7K in options. I know I will probably end up getting the AWD for winter driving but that should be cheaper than that. Maybe AWD + full autopilot is 7K?

    • Fred Lambert - 7 years ago

      Musk said that AWD will be less than 5k. Autopilot will probably between 2k and 3k IMO.

    • freeform1999 - 7 years ago

      I’m hoping they make the software 1200-1500 for the big mass market. At 2500+ many won’t afford it.

  4. And if most orders were done in Ontario Quebec and BC or other areas that have the incentives that are applied against the purchase price so $35,000 turns into much less purchase price so it actually will be far less than what they would pay for an ICE …
    that is why I figure a 90% adoption rate as in 90%will go through with thier orders

    • Steve Grenier - 7 years ago

      You know it’s not going to start at $35,000 for us right? Probably $46,000-$48,000.

      • ag80911 - 7 years ago

        Only if want options – if you stick to based you will 35k – however, if you are getting a testa, you are getting for toys and auto pilot and dual motor for sure.


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