After a sluggish stretch, US wind is heading into a pivotal moment, with a near-term rebound colliding with rising power demand, tariffs, and stubborn permitting bottlenecks.
US wind power: the next five years
The US is expected to add more than 7 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity in 2025, a 36% increase from this year, according to the latest US Wind Energy Monitor report from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP).
That matters now because the US power grid is under mounting pressure, just as new generation has become harder to build. Electricity demand is rising for the first time in years, mainly driven by data centers and other large loads, while wind developers are navigating higher turbine costs, tariff uncertainty, and permitting delays. How quickly projects can move from the pipeline to completion over the next few years will shape whether wind can help keep the lights on and power prices in check.
Over the longer term, the outlook is steady but increasingly back‑loaded. The report still sees 46 GW of new wind capacity coming online between 2025 and 2029. What has changed is timing. More projects are now expected to reach completion in the middle of the decade, with 2026 and 2027 shaping up to be especially busy years at 10.7 GW and 12.7 GW, respectively, as projects move through the development pipeline.
That shift helps explain why installations lagged earlier this year. Wind additions in Q3 came in at 932 megawatts (MW), about 23% below forecasts. But activity is picking up fast. Developers have about 3.8 GW queued for Q4 2025 alone, which would account for 52% of the year’s total expected capacity. That kind of late-year rush is typical for wind projects, which tend to reach completion toward the end of the calendar year.
There are also signs of life on the manufacturing side. US turbine order intake rebounded in Q3 to pre–Trump’s big bill act levels, with more than 2 GW of firm commitments, the strongest quarter in the past nine months, and a 79% jump from the previous quarter. But you wouldn’t know it, because turbine makers are increasingly keeping project details close to their chests, and much of the qualifying “start-of-construction” activity is happening off-site through component manufacturing.
Looking further out, the report flags a noticeable slowdown toward the end of the decade. Capacity additions in 2029 are expected to drop sharply following project cancellations and inactive designations, largely due to permitting challenges and broader development constraints.
Power demand takes off
At the same time, the need for new power is growing fast.
After a decade of mostly flat electricity demand, US power demand is now expected to grow by around 3% per year through 2029, compared to just 0.7% over the previous decade. Data centers alone are expected to drive about 59 GW of the roughly 90 GW increase in peak demand. That kind of round-the-clock load makes more wind power a necessity.
“The US power market is facing mounting strain after a decade of flat demand, with utilities committing to 160 GW of large-load additions,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, Wood Mackenzie’s director of research. “This represents a significant opportunity for wind energy, which benefits from strengthened economic fundamentals and a compelling business case driven by its competitively low LCOE.”
But she also warned that higher turbine costs and policy uncertainty could slow down progress in the middle of the decade.
Onshore wind: Western states lead
Onshore wind continues to do the heavy lifting. The five-year onshore outlook remains unchanged at 39.8 GW of new capacity, and the 2025–2027 pipeline already has turbine orders in place for every project. More than 60% of that three-year capacity has either been commissioned or is already under construction.
Western states are leading the charge. Wyoming, New Mexico, and neighboring states are expected to account for about 34% of onshore activity over that period. Big projects are driving the numbers, including Pattern Energy’s 3.5 GW SunZia project in New Mexico, which is set to make the company the top wind installer in 2026, and Invenergy’s 998 MW Towner Energy Center in Colorado, the single largest project expected to come online in 2027.
Wind is also spreading into new territory. Arkansas recently brought its first utility-scale onshore wind farm online with Cordelio’s Crossover Wind (pictured).
Repowering older wind farms remains another bright spot. Wood Mackenzie expects 18 repowering projects to add about 2.5 GW of capacity over the next three years.
Offshore wind: progress, but pressure
Offshore wind is a different story. Wood Mackenzie expects offshore installations to slow in Q4 2025 due to harsh winter weather, pushing some capacity into 2026. Still, projects already under construction are making progress. Vineyard Wind connected 15 turbines in Q3 and delivered 200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity over the first nine months of the year.
“US offshore wind shows diverging momentum,” Garcia da Fonseca said. “Projects under construction with commercial operation dates in 2026 continue to hit key milestones, but post-2027 developments face potential delays amid constrained wind turbine installation vessel capacity, driving delays and contract terminations.”
The offshore sector is also under growing financial strain – and let’s not forget political attack from the Trump administration – with delays and contract terminations weighing on late-decade projects.
Tariffs are making turbines more expensive
Tariffs remain one of the biggest wild cards for the US wind industry. Wood Mackenzie expects tariffs to push turbine costs higher in 2026 before easing in later years. Overall, US onshore wind capital spending is projected to rise by about 5% through 2029.
“US wind turbine pricing is experiencing unprecedented uncertainty as conflicting market and regulatory forces interact,” said Garcia da Fonseca. While domestic manufacturing capacity could eventually bring prices down, tariffs on raw materials and key components are expected to keep costs elevated in the near term.
Read more: Federal judge rules Trump’s offshore wind ban illegal
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