Tesla has released its Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers: confirming the suspicion that it is not growing anymore.
It’s even worse than most people anticipated.
Tesla Q1 2024 Expectations
As we have been reporting in the last few weeks, the expectations for Tesla’s Q1 2024 deliveries are all over the place.
Last month, the Wall Street consensus was around 470,000 deliveries, but it has been consistently revised down over the last few weeks as many of them now expect quite a disastrous quarter compared to the previous one.
As of today, the consensus is 431,000 deliveries.
In comparison, Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.
431,000 deliveries would still be a small growth year-over-ear, but it would be a massive quarter-to-quarter drop.
Tesla Q1 2024 Delivery and Production Results
Today, Tesla released its official Q1 2024 delivery and production results – confirming 386,810 deliveries for the first quarter of the year.
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 412,376 | 369,783 | 2% |
| Other Models | 20,995 | 17,027 | 1% |
| Total | 433,371 | 386,810 | 2% |
Tesla listed several excuses for the big delivery miss:
Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.
Top comment by Ben
Lots of factors at play here. Just off the top of my head:
1) High interest rates
2) No new mass-market products
3) Recent data indicates that consumer brand consideration for Tesla is at an all-time low, mostly due to Elon's antics
4) Early adopters now all have EVs, and the mainstream consumer adoption rate is lower than anticipated
5) More competition in the marketplace
Tesla’s stock dropped by as much as 7% in pre-market trading following the release.
Electrek’s Take
This is next-level bad. Even the most pessimistic analysts didn’t come close to predicting this level of deliveries.
All these excuses that Tesla is listing are good excuses, but they are good for the lower production levels. They don’t explain the ~50,000-vehicle discrepancy between production and deliveries. That’s a demand problem. As clear as it gets.
I think this should be a wake-up call. This is Tesla going back about two years in terms of demand.
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