Tesla (TSLA) is going to have to deliver as Wall Street is raising expectations in vehicle deliveries for the electric automaker ahead of the results coming next week.
Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery results for the third quarter of 2024 next week.
After two quarters in a row where Tesla saw year-over-year declines in deliveries, the automaker is finally expected to return to growth.
It shouldn’t be too difficult to do, considering Tesla delivered 435,059 vehicles in Q3 2023 – a number it beat last quarter, which was a weaker quarter.
As we previously reported, Tesla is seeing strong performance in China thanks to the introduction of 0% interest financing.
The question is whether China’s performance will compensate for Europe’s weaker performance and the situation in the US, which is less clear.
Wall Street believes it has the answer.
Several Wall Street analysts have recently increased their expectations for Tesla’s deliveries:
- Dan Levy from Barclays: from 462,000 to 470,000 deliveries
- Tom Narayan from RBC Capital Markets: from 454,000 to 460,000 deliveries
- Ben Kallo from Baird: 480,000 deliveries
- Joseph Spak from UBS: 470,000 deliveries
- Alexander Potter from Piper Sandler: 459,000 deliveries
Overall, the consensus settles at about 462,000 deliveries for Tesla in Q3 2024, according to Bloomberg.
This should comfortably bring Tesla back to year-over-year growth. However, it is still far short of the 485,000 vehicles it needs to deliver to be on pace and not be down year-over-year in deliveries for the whole year.
Top comment by Grant
Tesla has been selling as a growth stock (and a meme stock) for years. They are well over-valued based on revenue, but people would look past that hoping the growth would continue. Tesla is now just another maker of EVs as people have a choice when they decide what vehicle to buy. I hope Tesla continues to do well because we all win if EVs replace ICEVs. But I would not count on their stock price rising long term, and they have much more competition in China and elsewhere because the world has caught up.
While not reiterated nor changed all year, Tesla originally aimed to deliver about 2 million cars in 2024. The automaker would need to deliver 585,000 vehicles to be on pace for its original goal for the year.
Tesla has also recently included energy storage deployment in its production and delivery numbers after a quarter. However, it doesn’t look like analysts are focusing on this yet despite a recent surge in deployment contributing more significantly in Tesla’s overall financial performance.
Do you think Tesla will come over or under 462,000 deliveries? Let us know in the comment section below.
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