Tesla appears to be significantly ramping up Cybertruck production as more deliveries are happening and a large fleet is spotted at Gigafactory Texas.
The Cybertruck ramp is a bit of a mystery.
Tesla started production late last year, and it frustratingly refused to disclose deliveries in Q4. The automaker now bundles all Model S, Model X, Tesla Semi, and Cybertruck deliveries into a single category:
It leaves us wondering how many Cybertrucks Tesla has delivered to date.
One of the best ways we have to monitor the Cybertruck production ramp is drone flyovers of GIgafactory Texas.
Joe Tegtmeyer flew over the factory today and spotted a record number of Cybertrucks in the lots and more coming out of the plant:
Tesla is guiding a ramp-up to 250,000 Cybertrucks per year in roughly 18 months, which would put that milestone in mid-2025.
Everything between now and then is hard to predict as there are so many factors that can affect production.
Tesla is currently only delivering the Cybertruck AWD Foundation Series, which costs $100,000. The automaker is expected to also deliver the CyberBeast, a top-performance version of the truck, for $120,000 in the coming months.
A cheaper version of the Cybertruck is also expected later.
Electrek’s Take
Top comment by Electric Dad
It’s pretty simple: Foundation Series is priced to be high margin/low volume, and until the lower priced variants are announced I would assume the ability to ramp is minimal. Demand for $100K vehicles is small, and most joined the CT waiting list when headline price was much lower. Model S rarely sold more than 500 units/week in the US even at its peak; only when Model 3 launched did Tesla volume ramp manufacturing begin.
That the next variant planned is CyberBeast says volume ramp isn’t coming soon, so they’re taking the opportunity to double down on margin instead.
Anecdotally - I have yet to see one on the street, while I saw both Model X and Rivian out and about the week they launched. I think Q1 CT volume will be a few thousand at most.
It’s super hard to predict. I would guess Tesla has delivered a few thousand Cybertrucks at this point.
There are many widely different Wall Street estimates on this, but I don’t see many estimating more than 50,000 deliveries.
This looks very beatable to me since it would require averaging 1,000 deliveries per week and I could see Tesla achieving that toward the end of this quarter.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
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