Tesla (TSLA) Q3 delivery expectations are all over the place

Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release Q3 delivery numbers next week, and expectations are all over the place amid a likely rare quarter without growth.

Over the last few years, Tesla has created high expectations for deliveries every quarter by managing to beat quarterly records nearly every time.

During the last earnings call, CEO Elon Musk warned that Q3 2023 might be different. He said that production will likely be down due to factory shutdowns for upgrades.

When production is down, deliveries are often down too.

Last quarter, Tesla produced 479,700 vehicles and delivered 466,140 of them.

Now with delivery results expected next week, many analysts are locking in their expectations, and it is quite all over the place.

Here are some of the estimates from Wall Street analysts and independent researchers:

• Baird: 493,200 deliveries
• Deutsche Bank: 440,000 deliveries
• RBC Capital Markets: 462,000 deliveries
• Troy Teslike: 442,000 deliveries

The overall Wall Street consensus sits at an optimistic 462,000 deliveries, which is only marginally down from last quarter.

Electrek’s Take

I think Wall Street is setting Tesla up for a tumble on the delivery announcement. Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s most productive factory, had a shutdown.

Same for Gigafactory Texas, which looked like it had very little production during the quarter. It was never a major contributor to Tesla’s deliveries, but it will still have an impact.

I think closer to being down 20,000 deliveries, maybe even down 30,000 deliveries, would make more sense.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments section below.