Wind and solar reached a record 12% of global electricity in 2022, up from 10% in 2021, according to a report launched today by energy think tank Ember – and experts predict that power sector emissions have peaked.
Ember’s fourth annual Global Electricity Review presents electricity data from 2022 across 78 countries, representing 93% of global electricity demand. Ember asserts that its open data and in-depth analysis provide the first accurate picture of the global electricity transition in 2022.
The report has good news: It forecasts that as soon as 2023, wind and solar will push the world into a new era of falling fossil-fuel generation and, therefore, a reduction in power sector emissions.
The report’s lead author, Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, said:
In this decisive decade for the climate, it is the beginning of the end of the fossil age.
We are entering the clean power era.
Solar was the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 18th year in a row, rising by 24% year-on-year – +245 TWh – and adding enough electricity to power all of South Africa. Wind generation increased by 17% in 2022 – +312 TWh – enough to power almost all of the UK.
The report reveals that over 60 countries now generate more than 10% of their electricity from wind and solar. Together, all clean electricity sources – Ember includes nuclear in its tally – reached 39% of global electricity, a new record high.
Kingsmill Bond, CFA, energy strategist at RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute), said:
Ember’s analysis captures a key tipping point in the global electricity system. The rapid growth of solar and wind, led by China, means that fossil fuel demand has reached a peak and all the future growth will be from renewables. It is time for investors to adjust their capital allocation for this new environment.
But despite this progress, coal power remained the single largest source of electricity worldwide, producing 36% of global electricity in 2022.
Li Shuo, senior policy adviser at Greenpeace East Asia, noted:
China is the 800-pound gorilla when it comes to the global power sector. This is not only because of China’s sheer scale, but also a concerning trend of its electricity sector development. China has no doubt been leading global renewable energy expansion. But at the same time, the country is accelerating coal project approval.
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Rapid power sector reforms are needed to put the country back to the carbon neutrality vision it has set for itself.
The growth in wind and solar generation in 2022 met an impressive 80% of the rise in global electricity demand. In spite of the global gas crisis and fears of a return to coal, it was that rise in wind and solar that limited the increase in coal generation (+1.1%, or +108 TWh). Gas power generation fell very slightly (-0.2%, or -12 TWh) in 2022. But that still meant that power sector emissions increased by 1.3% in 2022, reaching an all-time high.
However, the report forecasts that 2022 may be the “peak” of electricity emissions and the final year of fossil-fuel power growth, with clean power meeting all demand growth in 2023. As a result, there would be a slight fall in fossil-fuel generation (-0.3%) this year, with larger drops in subsequent years as wind and solar deployment accelerate.
According to the International Energy Agency, the electricity sector needs to move from being the highest-emitting sector to being the first sector to reach net zero by 2040 in order to achieve economy-wide net zero by 2050.
This would mean wind and solar reaching 41% of global electricity by 2030, compared to 12% in 2022.
Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka continued:
The stage is set for wind and solar to achieve a meteoric rise to the top. Clean electricity will reshape the global economy, from transport to industry and beyond. A new era of falling fossil emissions means the coal power phase-down will happen, and the end of gas power growth is now within sight. Change is coming fast.
However, it all depends on the actions taken now by governments, businesses, and citizens to put the world on a pathway to clean power by 2040.
Read more: Renewables will be the largest source of electricity by early 2025
Photo: Mexico Energy Partners
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