S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that shows Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market share.
But when you had close to 100% of the market, there’s only one way to go, and that’s down.
For years now, Tesla has dominated the electric auto market in its home country. It is expected that Tesla’s hold on the market will erode as more EV options hit and help grow the US market, but for now, the US EV market is still extremely dependent on Tesla’s production and deliveries.
For the entire year of 2020, Tesla vehicles accounted for 79% of new electric vehicles registered in the United States. In 2021, that number went down to 69.95%, but that’s still impressive with EV delivery volumes significantly increasing throughout the year along with Tesla’s prices.
Now in 2022, new data released by S&P Global Mobility today shows that Tesla still dominates with 65% of market share this year through the first nine months:
Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.
Out of the more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Tesla vehicles.
When you look into the luxury EV market (over $50,000), Tesla’s dominance is even clearer with 85% market share.
S&P Global Mobility predicts that the number of EV models available in the US will grow from 48 at present to 159 by 2025.
Tesla is expected to only contribute a single additional vehicle, the Cybertruck, to those 100+ new EV models, but S&P says that it will still only marginally affect Tesla, which is expected to still grow its volume during that time.
Stephanie Brinley, associate director of AutoIntelligence for S&P Global Mobility, commented:
Before you feel too badly for Tesla, however, remember that the brand will continue to see unit sales grow, even as share declines. The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it will continue to be, so long as its competitors are bound by production capacity.
However, some of those new EV models from other automakers are expected to reach high-volume production within the next three years and start challenging Tesla’s dominance in the US.
In fact, S&P thinks that Tesla’s US EV share will drop to below 20% of the overall market by 2025 which means that either Tesla will have to falter or the rest of the industry will have to go all out in the next three years. Or more likely both.
Top comment by CMG30
It's a near mathematical certainty that Tesla will continue to lose market-share for the next several years, no matter how many times they double production. It's just what it is. The only time to be worried is if Tesla starts to have an inventory backlog.
When you basically own the whole market, there’s only one way, and that’s down. So if I were Tesla, I wouldn’t worry too much.
It’s all about production volume. Whichever automaker is able to produce compelling EVs in large volume is going to dominate, and so far, that’s Tesla. There’s no doubt about it.
It’s important to note that Tesla dominates the EV market in the US right now, but the EV market is itself just about 5% of the US light vehicle market.
By the time there are a few dozen EV programs that have production capacities near a million units, the EV market will take a majority of market shares.
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