According to a new analysis from Wedbush, Tesla (TSLA) is expected to reach 1.3 million deliveries in 2022.
The automaker is apparently getting ahead of current supply chain issues plaguing the auto industry.
Ahead of the start of 2021, some industry watchers thought it could be the year Tesla breaks a million deliveries.
However, like the rest of the auto industry, Tesla has been hit by supply chain problems.
The company navigated the global chip shortage fairly well, but it has also become clear that the openings of its new factories, Gigafactory Texas and Gigafactory Berlin, are not going to happen until the end of the year.
These two new factories are critical to Tesla increasing its delivery volume.
In a new note, Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities analyst, said that he now expects Tesla to deliver 900,000 vehicles this year and grow to 1.3 million vehicles in 2022.
The analyst wrote in the note:
In a nutshell, competition is increasing from all angles in this EV arms race which has been an overhang over Tesla and the overall sector, however this is just the start of an EV transformation that will change the auto industry for the coming decades with Tesla leading the charge. With EVs representing 3% of overall autos globally and poised to hit 10% by 2025 there will be much more competition in a massively increasing share of the global auto market.
Ives believes that Tesla will benefit disproportionally from this transition to electric vehicles in the industry.
Wedbush has an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target on Tesla.
Ives is one of the most respected analysts on Wall Street and ranked No. 30 out of 7,641 analysts on TipRanks.
I agree that Tesla will disproportionally benefit from the transition since the company is heavily investing in deploying large volumes of new EV production capacity.
But I also believe that the transition is going to happen much faster than 10% by 2025.
Automakers will trip over themselves to try to convert their gas-powered vehicle production capacity to EV production around 2024-2025.
If you think there are tough supply chain conditions right now, you won’t believe how wild it’s going to get.
Tesla is among the automakers most aware of the situation and best prepared to face it.
It also helps when one is not managing a declining gas-powered car business.
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