The latest data shows Tesla (TSLA) still holds an impressive 18% market share of the global electric car market.
That’s about to change, and it’s not going to be a bad thing for Tesla, who is about to get a smaller piece of a much bigger pie.
For years now, Tesla has been leading the electric vehicle market (BEV and PHEV) with large volume production and deliveries of several vehicle programs.
Model 3 and Model Y are leading EV sales in many markets, while Model S and Model X are still beating many other electric vehicles in terms of volume.
Other automakers have only been able to achieve a fraction of Tesla’s sales in the sector as they mostly stuck to low volume compliance electric cars.
The result is that Tesla now holds roughly 18% of the global electric vehicle market year-to-date in 2020 with Volkswagen coming at a distant second with only a third of Tesla’s volume (via EV Sales Blogspot):
| Pl. | Brands | Sept sales | Year-to-Date sales | Market share |
| 1 | Tesla | 65,814 | 316,820 | 18% |
| 2 | Volkswagen | 24,035 | 113,091 | 6% |
| 3 | BYD | 18,631 | 104,176 | 6% |
| 4 | BMW | 15,525 | 101,270 | 6% |
| 5 | Renault | 13,300 | 68,928 | 4% |
| 6 | Mercedes-Benz | 17,836 | 68,855 | 4% |
| 7 | Volvo | 11,838 | 67,561 | 4% |
| 8 | Audi | 12,385 | 67,304 | 4% |
| 9 | Hyundai | 11,510 | 63,679 | 4% |
| 10 | Kia | 10,937 | 59,840 | 3% |
| 11 | SGMW | 19,023 | 58,785 | 3% |
| 12 | SAIC | 9,967 | 51,275 | 3% |
| 13 | Peugeot | 6,994 | 43,498 | 2% |
| 14 | Nissan | 6,936 | 42,181 | 2% |
| 15 | GAC | 7,083 | 39,833 | 2% |
| 16 | Toyota | 5,144 | 31,101 | 2% |
| 17 | Ford | 2,944 | 30,432 | 2% |
| 18 | Mitsubishi | 3,417 | 28,208 | 2% |
| 19 | Porsche | 4,203 | 27,928 | 2% |
| 20 | Nio | 4,203 | 26,498 | 1% |
| Others | 73,177 | 371,030 | 21% | |
| Total | 345,519 | 1,784,293 | 100% |
However, this domination from Tesla is about to change as the electric vehicle market as a whole is about to shift significantly in the next few years.
Electrek’s Take
Currently, Tesla has about 18% of a global EV market that itself has about 3% fo the global passenger vehicle market.
In short, Tesla has a big piece of a small pie.
Things are about to change fast with more than a dozen new all-electric vehicle programs launching over the next 12 months alone, and many more to come in the next few years.
Personally, I predict that the EV market share will more than double to between 7 and 10% of the global auto market in 2021 alone.
I expect Tesla is going to grow its sales by roughly 50% next year, which is going to help, but I think that Volkswagen with the ID.3 and ID.4, Audi with Q4 e-tron, Ford with the Mustang Mach E, Nissan with Ariya, and many more, are going to have an even greater impact than Tesla increasing sales by 50%.
Therefore, Tesla’s market share of the EV market will drop, but it will be a smaller piece of a much bigger market. I think they will still keep the lead, but it will be closer to 12% of the market if EV sales reach between 7 and 10% of the global auto market.
What do you think is going to be the market share of EVs in 2021? Let us know your predictions in the comment section below.
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