The latest data shows Tesla (TSLA) still holds an impressive 18% market share of the global electric car market.
That’s about to change, and it’s not going to be a bad thing for Tesla, who is about to get a smaller piece of a much bigger pie.
For years now, Tesla has been leading the electric vehicle market (BEV and PHEV) with large volume production and deliveries of several vehicle programs.
Model 3 and Model Y are leading EV sales in many markets, while Model S and Model X are still beating many other electric vehicles in terms of volume.
Other automakers have only been able to achieve a fraction of Tesla’s sales in the sector as they mostly stuck to low volume compliance electric cars.
The result is that Tesla now holds roughly 18% of the global electric vehicle market year-to-date in 2020 with Volkswagen coming at a distant second with only a third of Tesla’s volume (via EV Sales Blogspot):
|Pl.||Brands||Sept sales||Year-to-Date sales||Market share|
However, this domination from Tesla is about to change as the electric vehicle market as a whole is about to shift significantly in the next few years.
Currently, Tesla has about 18% of a global EV market that itself has about 3% fo the global passenger vehicle market.
In short, Tesla has a big piece of a small pie.
Things are about to change fast with more than a dozen new all-electric vehicle programs launching over the next 12 months alone, and many more to come in the next few years.
Personally, I predict that the EV market share will more than double to between 7 and 10% of the global auto market in 2021 alone.
I expect Tesla is going to grow its sales by roughly 50% next year, which is going to help, but I think that Volkswagen with the ID.3 and ID.4, Audi with Q4 e-tron, Ford with the Mustang Mach E, Nissan with Ariya, and many more, are going to have an even greater impact than Tesla increasing sales by 50%.
Therefore, Tesla’s market share of the EV market will drop, but it will be a smaller piece of a much bigger market. I think they will still keep the lead, but it will be closer to 12% of the market if EV sales reach between 7 and 10% of the global auto market.
What do you think is going to be the market share of EVs in 2021? Let us know your predictions in the comment section below.
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