The latest data shows Tesla (TSLA) still holds an impressive 18% market share of the global electric car market.

That’s about to change, and it’s not going to be a bad thing for Tesla, who is about to get a smaller piece of a much bigger pie.

For years now, Tesla has been leading the electric vehicle market (BEV and PHEV) with large volume production and deliveries of several vehicle programs.

Model 3 and Model Y are leading EV sales in many markets, while Model S and Model X are still beating many other electric vehicles in terms of volume.

Other automakers have only been able to achieve a fraction of Tesla’s sales in the sector as they mostly stuck to low volume compliance electric cars.

The result is that Tesla now holds roughly 18% of the global electric vehicle market year-to-date in 2020 with Volkswagen coming at a distant second with only a third of Tesla’s volume (via EV Sales Blogspot):

Pl. Brands Sept sales Year-to-Date sales Market share
1 Tesla 65,814 316,820 18%
2 Volkswagen 24,035 113,091 6%
3 BYD 18,631 104,176 6%
4 BMW 15,525 101,270 6%
5 Renault 13,300 68,928 4%
6 Mercedes-Benz 17,836 68,855 4%
7 Volvo 11,838 67,561 4%
8 Audi 12,385 67,304 4%
9 Hyundai 11,510 63,679 4%
10 Kia 10,937 59,840 3%
11 SGMW 19,023 58,785 3%
12 SAIC 9,967 51,275 3%
13 Peugeot 6,994 43,498 2%
14 Nissan 6,936 42,181 2%
15 GAC 7,083 39,833 2%
16 Toyota 5,144 31,101 2%
17 Ford 2,944 30,432 2%
18 Mitsubishi 3,417 28,208 2%
19 Porsche 4,203 27,928 2%
20 Nio 4,203 26,498 1%
Others 73,177 371,030 21%
Total 345,519 1,784,293 100%

However, this domination from Tesla is about to change as the electric vehicle market as a whole is about to shift significantly in the next few years.

Electrek’s Take

Currently, Tesla has about 18% of a global EV market that itself has about 3% fo the global passenger vehicle market.

In short, Tesla has a big piece of a small pie.

Things are about to change fast with more than a dozen new all-electric vehicle programs launching over the next 12 months alone, and many more to come in the next few years.

Personally, I predict that the EV market share will more than double to between 7 and 10% of the global auto market in 2021 alone.

I expect Tesla is going to grow its sales by roughly 50% next year, which is going to help, but I think that Volkswagen with the ID.3 and ID.4, Audi with Q4 e-tron, Ford with the Mustang Mach E, Nissan with Ariya, and many more, are going to have an even greater impact than Tesla increasing sales by 50%.

Therefore, Tesla’s market share of the EV market will drop, but it will be a smaller piece of a much bigger market. I think they will still keep the lead, but it will be closer to 12% of the market if EV sales reach between 7 and 10% of the global auto market.

What do you think is going to be the market share of EVs in 2021? Let us know your predictions in the comment section below.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Subscribe to Electrek on YouTube for exclusive videos and subscribe to the podcast.

You’re reading Electrek— experts who break news about Tesla, electric vehicles, and green energy, day after day. Be sure to check out our homepage for all the latest news, and follow Electrek on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn to stay in the loop. Don’t know where to start? Check out our YouTube channel for the latest reviews.

About the Author