Tesla is losing market shares to Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace, claims analyst — really?

According to a new report from Bernstein, Tesla is losing market shares to Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace, especially in Europe.

Are they looking at it the right way?

Bernstein’s tech and auto analyst Toni Sacconaghi is out with a new note today to clients that includes results from their new report on EV sales in Europe.

They claim that the declining Model S and Model X sales are due to new competition from Jaguar and Audi:

Our analysis suggests that the deteriorating sales trajectory of the Model S and X may be primarily due to competition, particularly in Europe, from Jaguar and Audi.

Sacconaghi added:

In other words, the market isn’t growing much, and Tesla is losing share.

Toni Sacconaghi is a top-ranked analyst — currently ranked No. 211 out of 5,240 on Tip Ranks with a 69% success rate and 21.4% average return.

He has been recommending a hold on Tesla’s stock over the last year:

Electrek’s Take

I can see how he would think that purely from the numbers.

Model S and Model X sales dropped a lot throughout 2019 in Europe with about 4,000 Model S vehicles and 3,500 Model X vehicles delivered during the first half of the year.

You might think that it’s due to the introduction of the Audi e-tron and Jaguar I-Pace, which are both at over 6,000 units through June 2019.

However, if you look at European EV sales, the introduction of the e-ton and I-Pace is not even near the biggest changes in the market.

Tesla Model 3 European deliveries started in 2019, and according to registration data, they were already at over 37,000 units in June, making it the best-selling electric vehicle on the continent.

Don’t get me wrong; the e-tron and I-Pace most likely had an impact on Model S and Model X sales. But I think it’s less of an impact than Model 3, even though it’s not in the same segment.

The fact that Tesla introduced the Model 3 with higher efficiency and faster charging is dissuading people from going with the higher-end and more expensive models.

Maybe less so for the Model X, which has more seating capability, making it less comparable with the Model 3, but it’s definitely having a bigger impact on Model S.

To be fair, Tesla also upgraded its Model S and Model X lineup in April, which might start to have an impact on sales in Europe in the second half of the year.

However, we believe that more upgrades and a design refresh are needed to really revive Model S and Model X. Plans for those seem to have been put on the back burner as Tesla focuses on Model 3.

If you put Europe aside and look at US sales, you can see that I-Pace and e-tron have virtually no impact on Tesla’s sales.