A few months ahead of the launch of the Model X, Tesla could have over 24,000 reservations for the crossover-SUV, twice as much as the company had for the Model S before its official launch in 2012. Tesla confirmed back in December that they had around 20,000 reservations for the vehicle, the company could have added more than 4,000 reservations during the past 2 quarters. This number is in line with a tally created by members of the Tesla Motors Club. Members of the Tesla Motors Club (TMC) have been gathering reservation data on the Model X since Tesla unveiled the prototype on Feb 9, 2012. Members post their sequence number for their region and version of the vehicle (signature or regular production). A summary tally of the highest numbers reported to date are regularly updated to show the current tally total.
Paul Carter, TMC Model X moderator and a Canadian Signature reservation holder, has been keeping a monthly snapshot of the tally. He posts a summary and graph of the stats each month. Here’s the graph for last month:
The Model X seems to have much more traction ahead of its launch than the Model S had. During the summer of 2012, before Tesla started deliveries on the Model S, the company had around 12,000 reservations with deposits on the all-electric sedan or about half of what they currently have for their crossover-SUV.
The chart shows a significant slowdown in reservations during the last quarter of 2014 after Tesla introduced the all-wheel-drive dual motor versions of the Model S. Some Model X reservation holders were mainly waiting for the all-wheel-drive option, which was promised to be included on the Model X, and when Tesla introduced the feature, they cancelled their reservations and ordered Model S’s with dual motor.
Reservations have since increased and this without Tesla ever showing an official version of the production model. Although those reservations don’t guarantee orders, they require a reimbursable deposit of $5,000 for the production version or $40,000 for the limited signature version, therefore making the reservations useful for estimating demand.
Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, said the company was aiming at allowing reservations holders to configure their cars and place their orders by the end of July. The company expects to start deliveries at the end of the third quarter and start volume production during the fourth quarter of the year.
Notes & Assumptions about the data and net estimate:
- This collection of the numbers is gathered from posts by Tesla Motors Club members on various threads and other forums. Since these aren’t official numbers, and are to be taken with a grain of salt. Do not rely upon the total of production + signature numbers in any way as those who have upgraded from a production reservation to a signature reservation have been counted twice.
- North America: Signatures assumed sold out as of March 26, 2014 and perhaps limited to 1,200. Thus count may be over. Its been reported that Tesla is calling production reservation holders on a signature waiting list to fill the cancelled signatures to date.
- Europe: Signatures assumed sold out as of November 10, 2014 and perhaps limited to 500. Thus count may be over.
- Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having “almost 20,000” on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
- Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month.
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